Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4947591d9ad81341cc1e88bf1a508675554693bd59e2ae4f6b102f3ad677134c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 47c | 6,487$3,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,463.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…e7abbacked Yes | 68c | 4,264$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 62c | 3,640$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 77c | 3,222$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed No | 13c | 2,674$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 2,103$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.71 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 43c | 1,750$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.1 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 49c | 1,609$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.17 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 22c | 1,338$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.72 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…4386backed Yes | 77c | 1,297$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…92debacked Yes | 72c | 1,171$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 37c | 1,163$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.91 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 64c | 1,032$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.49 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 1c | 1,021$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 52c | 789.15$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.91 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 42c | 731.82$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.04 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 700$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 547.24$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed No | 38c | 521.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…e351backed Yes | 80c | 499.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…f56abacked No | 11c | 473.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +584.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…db03backed Yes | 4c | 466.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed No | 49c | 405.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 78c | 388$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.04 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 10c | 385.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.43 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 57c | 360.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed Yes | 54c | 344.66$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…5aaebacked Yes | 44c | 344.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 341.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…cc94backed No | 26c | 336.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9090…f8dbbacked No | 30c | 329.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…39f3backed No | 29c | 304.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…d59abacked No | 20c | 299.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 43c | 298.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed No | 50c | 291.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…ba2cbacked Yes | 76c | 290$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes | 59c | 290$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 21c | 285.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…7657backed Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ff…7f9cbacked No | 53c | 262.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 19c | 259.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…1621backed No | 49c | 250$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…c940backed Yes | 46c | 236.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 72c | 233.6$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 55c | 227.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c6…751cbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 68c | 224.19$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 72c | 220$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 74c | 214.94$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 31c | 206.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked No | 20c | 201.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…836fbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed No | 41c | 195$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 32c | 194.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 29c | 190.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed No | 27c | 181.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 56c | 179.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…9b79backed No | 26c | 177.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…b179backed Yes | 38c | 174.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 53c | 169.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 57c | 163.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes | 61c | 162.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 51c | 162.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 62c | 161.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 10c | 160$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 57c | 155.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed No | 10c | 150.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…8adbbacked Yes | 79c | 150$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…94dcbacked Yes | 70c | 149.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…e836backed No | 47c | 149.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 71c | 147.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 46c | 144.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 73c | 141$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 45c | 133.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 76c | 130.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…5ab4backed No | 36c | 130.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 31c | 125.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…5887backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 54c | 118$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 35c | 105.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +200.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 28c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…276dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…88d4backed No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…b323backed Yes | 65c | 92.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.