Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12510cbb072babf2a9b59e9efd75a3626d89ef93ae3d44f039bbb4034db56a3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…83d6backed Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…d370backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 20c | 1,135$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.6 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 78c | 965.61$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.68 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 941.37$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.69 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 60c | 727.45$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.53 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 67c | 709.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…1f17backed Yes | 39c | 671.09$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…2a06backed Yes | 34c | 534.27$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e142backed Yes | 41c | 499.6$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 72c | 488.97$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…9f00backed Yes | 44c | 480.74$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 77c | 472.36$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 465$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a2…5e47backed Yes | 32c | 391.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 30c | 387.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 28c | 380.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed No | 71c | 352.34$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…b323backed Yes | 28c | 327.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 63c | 312.83$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed Yes | 32c | 309.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 66c | 305.97$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 63c | 299.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 75c | 297.67$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked No | 52c | 289.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed No | 63c | 283.5$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 266.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 64c | 240.6$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 15c | 223$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.78 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 40c | 213.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 209$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…791abacked Yes | 23c | 193.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 34c | 193.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 30c | 191.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 72c | 184.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed No | 55c | 182.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…79e4backed Yes | 35c | 180.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 179.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…0350backed No | 38c | 145$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 71c | 144.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked No | 76c | 131.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…87d0backed Yes | 13c | 123.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 42c | 119.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 59c | 119.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed Yes | 66c | 101.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 62c | 101.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 20c | 100.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…b92bbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 61c | 92.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 37c | 92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 76c | 91.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…24e6backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…b452backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd35…4effbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d2…f073backed Yes | 23c | 85.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 25c | 84.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Yes | 33c | 78.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -59%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 66c | 72.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked No | 57c | 70.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…b7d6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 64c | 64.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…4a02backed Yes | 66c | 64.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 55c | 63.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…d27ebacked Yes | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 59c | 63.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…14e0backed Yes | 25c | 62.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…786dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c0b5backed No | 38c | 59.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 55.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55f…30a7backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…e877backed No | 76c | 55.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 35c | 55.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed No | 31c | 54.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 30c | 53.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 43c | 52.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 21c | 51.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Yes | 61c | 51.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 50c | 50.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed5…5c2abacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…5e3fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…1e19backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked No | 31c | 45.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…4bf4backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…179bbacked Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…1575backed Yes | 39c | 41.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 37c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.