Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cf574789afedda24fa0e14abd2a3db8f223743c81d52e42f4acc6f6a33d8bbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2335…4ebdbacked No | 51c | 9,401$4,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 8,860$4,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked No | 42c | 8,101$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 4c | 6,110$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 8c | 5,135$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,723.89 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 7c | 3,975$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked No | 8c | 3,247$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 44c | 2,780$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.88 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 16c | 2,335$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 53c | 2,080$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.69 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 36c | 1,972$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 11c | 1,922$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 1c | 1,869$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 18c | 1,686$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 40c | 1,585$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…cb1cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…cb73backed No | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 11c | 1,358$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked No | 50c | 1,338$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…235dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,173$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 1,135$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 43c | 1,075$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…ccf7backed Yes | 43c | 1,051$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c0b5backed Yes | 70c | 1,007$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…ac29backed Yes | 45c | 989.34$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +228.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 31c | 987.01$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ef…1d20backed Yes | 54c | 935.59$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 5c | 876.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…7342backed Yes | 50c | 843.62$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 25c | 794.63$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked Yes | 67c | 762.68$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 49c | 757.31$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 31c | 750$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 70c | 723.42$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…40c1backed Yes | 62c | 716.25$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…c2b6backed Yes | 64c | 697.77$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 53c | 690.94$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.27 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed Yes | 64c | 664.45$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 57c | 636.84$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.89 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 60c | 635.8$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 62c | 600.06$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.68 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 17c | 589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked No | 41c | 586.47$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 72c | 579.51$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…94dcbacked Yes | 54c | 575.29$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 44c | 535.01$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.36 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…c22ebacked Yes | 75c | 533.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…8da0backed Yes | 70c | 531.52$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed Yes | 61c | 530.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…1b97backed No | 41c | 489.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 21c | 424.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…0bb8backed No | 61c | 408.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…58b8backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…62cabacked Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes | 62c | 398.83$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 47c | 391.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 13c | 389.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 20c | 380.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…8319backed No | 38c | 373.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked No | 53c | 372.91$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…2f8abacked Yes | 75c | 371.8$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…0350backed No | 31c | 370$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdc…1fa7backed No | 55c | 365.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 63c | 349.88$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 31c | 338.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 331.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…8444backed No | 35c | 331.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…2686backed Yes | 67c | 315.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…22bcbacked Yes | 46c | 313.08$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…2b08backed Yes | 52c | 305.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 44c | 305.19$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…7b7cbacked Yes | 67c | 299.97$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 58c | 299.79$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 37c | 285.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…8e5abacked Yes | 51c | 285.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…7f0bbacked Yes | 71c | 282.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…f29dbacked Yes | 42c | 266.36$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 37c | 263.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…8ebabacked No | 40c | 252.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 252.08$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 61c | 249.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…78babacked Yes | 56c | 239.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 51c | 239.43$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…c36bbacked Yes | 79c | 235.65$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 54c | 230.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed No | 44c | 227.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…cbcabacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 59c | 221.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…ae8bbacked Yes | 61c | 220.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 66c | 219.69$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ce…9c42backed Yes | 68c | 219.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 39c | 211$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 56c | 210.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes | 57c | 208.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.