Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05558f3d27d1ecfe7cf13b5687722aba4fd353e49e00834331a62087a03173dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed No | 2c | 20,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 12cpaid | +427.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 74c | 3,066$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…53c9backed Yes | 14c | 2,866$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 26c | 2,307$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.82 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 30c | 2,183$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 18c | 1,483$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,433$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…ade2backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…11dfbacked Yes | 60c | 901.1$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 26c | 768$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…148dbacked Yes | 12c | 749.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 727.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.84 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…2858backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 14c | 505.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.51 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 61c | 496$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 13c | 479.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 67c | 468.3$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.77 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…ffa3backed Yes | 14c | 360$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…0ab7backed Yes | 63c | 315.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 16c | 312.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.43 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…4cd6backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 70c | 291.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 69c | 284.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…96b7backed Yes | 14c | 260$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 251.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 39c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 41c | 244.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 9c | 218.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 15c | 213.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 200.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.24 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x19e6…2194backed Yes | 25c | 199.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +169.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 59c | 180.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes | 36c | 179$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5797…2966backed Yes | 30c | 167.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 77c | 164.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…d6dcbacked No | 40c | 164.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 68c | 147.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 141.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 28c | 135.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…c461backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…0244backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 77c | 118.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…2c09backed Yes | 43c | 116.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 11c | 108.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 78c | 101.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…6a9dbacked Yes | 25c | 101.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…488bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 11cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…caa1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…f480backed Yes | 23c | 86.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…489fbacked Yes | 41c | 85.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…d3c2backed Yes | 58c | 85.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 51c | 72.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 62c | 70.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…786dbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…6c20backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 49c | 61.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 80c | 60.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…2a91backed Yes | 27c | 59.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 60c | 57.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…5e3fbacked Yes | 32c | 55.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…d04ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…3177backed No | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed No | 34c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe152…23cfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed No | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…f48fbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29b…98d0backed No | 53c | 34.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…6378backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f297backed Yes | 36c | 29.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0824…f3f1backed No | 80c | 25.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…aa2cbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 52c | 24.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…f758backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…879cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…7143backed No | 76c | 17.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +104%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…2150backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.