Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4be5e68b2c91d7534b5473e7a6a3b27e14916b0bd403c1a407b19e58573861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x341b…0eddbacked No | 1c | 10,494$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 2c | 5,757$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed No | 14c | 4,763$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.08 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717a…7476backed No | 19c | 2,986$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 2,981$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.08 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 3c | 2,980$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 1c | 2,538$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…8713backed Yes | 80c | 2,350$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 30c | 2,334$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…8d9cbacked No | 5c | 2,250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 22c | 2,003$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.01 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…695bbacked No | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 15c | 1,465$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b0…4449backed No | 22c | 1,406$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 27c | 1,318$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.7 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 17c | 1,282$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 18c | 1,276$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.53 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked No | 38c | 1,238$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 72c | 1,230$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…5ed4backed Yes | 32c | 1,190$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +209.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 20c | 1,150$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes | 70c | 1,129$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 18c | 1,098$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 21c | 1,052$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.08 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 23c | 992.47$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 3c | 919.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 892.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c0b5backed Yes | 77c | 710$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 78c | 663.93$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 28c | 618.05$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes | 67c | 595.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 24c | 555$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 8c | 549.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 25c | 541.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc35…c475backed No | 32c | 508.13$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed Yes | 76c | 506.22$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…f9edbacked No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…f235backed No | 20c | 471.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 13c | 459.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdf…45cebacked No | 20c | 426.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…499ebacked Yes | 65c | 403.25$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed No | 27c | 403.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4f…1013backed No | 14c | 391.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 386.67$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 75c | 368.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed No | 17c | 357.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 25c | 326.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…7e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 315.95$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 80c | 305.06$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…f091backed Yes | 66c | 305.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6939backed Yes | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 59c | 291.53$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 73c | 275$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 7c | 275$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 19c | 265.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b93…6629backed No | 8c | 263.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 78c | 256.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…b92bbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…4f2ebacked No | 25c | 250$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 22c | 248.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…e00cbacked Yes | 74c | 242.91$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 66c | 235.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…a6a5backed Yes | 67c | 225.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 25c | 225$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 38c | 211.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 211.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…1710backed No | 20c | 194.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 32c | 190$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 78c | 186.15$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 61c | 180$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…4ae4backed No | 39c | 176.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…244fbacked Yes | 67c | 161.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 62c | 160.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 30c | 160.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…31b9backed Yes | 77c | 156.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed Yes | 65c | 156.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 76c | 151.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…9be6backed Yes | 67c | 149.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe691…6554backed No | 31c | 148.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…d665backed Yes | 80c | 141$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe464…25ecbacked No | 14c | 139.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +200.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…e142backed Yes | 79c | 136$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 39c | 132.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…08cebacked Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…2f8abacked Yes | 80c | 125.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…fcb0backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 21c | 124.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…6f12backed No | 35c | 123.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 30c | 120.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 65c | 111.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…229fbacked Yes | 72c | 110.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 63c | 106.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…786dbacked No | 38c | 105.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…9186backed Yes | 63c | 103.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?this page
- Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?No won
- Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Yes won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.