TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x341b…0eddbacked No1c10,494$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.791338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No2c5,757$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.858632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed No14c4,763$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.082835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x717a…7476backed No19c2,986$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No19c2,981$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.0821022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No3c2,980$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.463748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No1c2,538$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.097014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ff…8713backed Yes80c2,350$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No30c2,334$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf22e…8d9cbacked No5c2,250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No22c2,003$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.013953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc89f…695bbacked No4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No15c1,465$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2930319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4b0…4449backed No22c1,406$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes27c1,318$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.716535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No17c1,282$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22012649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No18c1,276$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.536033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked No38c1,238$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes72c1,230$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3492850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…5ed4backed Yes32c1,190$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+209.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No20c1,150$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.511244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes70c1,129$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No18c1,098$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.767129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No21c1,052$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.088547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…8070backed No23c992.47$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+157.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No3c919.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.596053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No3c892.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd03…c0b5backed Yes77c710$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes78c663.93$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3917225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No28c618.05$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.267128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes67c595.45$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.242065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No24c555$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No8c549.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.63043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked No25c541.94$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.91866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc35…c475backed No32c508.13$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ce…dd52backed Yes76c506.22$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a8…f9edbacked No25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…f235backed No20c471.6$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-57.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked No13c459.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.881618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+34.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7cdf…45cebacked No20c426.42$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.91425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8861…499ebacked Yes65c403.25$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x615b…7958backed No27c403.11$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4f…1013backed No14c391.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes75c386.67$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes75c368.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed No17c357.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed No25c326.92$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.583625%9 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed14…7e0fbacked Yes77c315.95$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes80c305.06$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.011833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf58…f091backed Yes66c305.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes67c300$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…6939backed Yes77c300$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes59c291.53$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.531118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-67.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes73c275$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9822347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No7c275$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.757045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No19c265.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5936527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b93…6629backed No8c263.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick21cpaid+155.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes78c256.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.433751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.62646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a0…b92bbacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…4f2ebacked No25c250$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No22c248.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…e00cbacked Yes74c242.91$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes66c235.19$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7112531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf2…a6a5backed Yes67c225.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.46475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes25c225$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.84136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked No38c211.26$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.442737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes71c211.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.371,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee7…1710backed No20c194.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes32c190$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.67038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes78c186.15$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.869829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked Yes61c180$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.481650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…4ae4backed No39c176.12$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5630…244fbacked Yes67c161.77$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7caf…19d2backed Yes62c160.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.721643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed No30c160.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.563737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e2…31b9backed Yes77c156.65$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed Yes65c156.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.37785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+47.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes76c151.79$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0228636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1657…9be6backed Yes67c149.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe691…6554backed No31c148.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d7f…d665backed Yes80c141$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe464…25ecbacked No14c139.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick20cpaid+200.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8712…e142backed Yes79c136$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.56650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No39c132.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.128741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433a…08cebacked Yes80c130$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x026a…2f8abacked Yes80c125.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.554100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ace…fcb0backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed No21c124.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.567119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd297…6f12backed No35c123.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed No30c120.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.043644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.262152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes65c111.35$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.353842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f95…229fbacked Yes72c110.7$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes63c106.35$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.247639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99cf…786dbacked No38c105.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.321330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…9186backed Yes63c103.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.