Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Feb 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fcd6edb2892a1b46da7b0919f4d2d05a7b037d0f46ee465415ea8c4d1c1347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 70c | 871.43$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.43 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 32c | 775.88$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 69c | 650.87$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 65c | 564.63$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…ef31backed No | 41c | 495.22$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 57c | 448.97$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.89 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.99 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 76c | 217.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 70c | 203.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 152.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 57c | 146.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 64c | 111.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 62c | 101.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 50c | 100.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed Yes | 67c | 89.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 25c | 80.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 55c | 67.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…7154backed Yes | 23c | 63.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 72c | 55.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed Yes | 70c | 54.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…bb70backed Yes | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…3412backed No | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 35c | 40.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…e4a5backed No | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…9a0fbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…f883backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Feb 7-14?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 14-16 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 17-19 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-22 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 23-25 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Feb 7-14?No won
- Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Feb 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.