Stocks · resolved market
Pershing Square IPO in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b5d5ea1456acf084eab04ca0290af59c5250ddd1187c5bfcfa194c0acd9ca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 40c | 1,633$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.13 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 47c | 1,457$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed No | 52c | 1,156$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 50c | 1,113$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 59c | 1,074$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 63c | 1,040$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed No | 79c | 819.65$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 61c | 818.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 69c | 752$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 66c | 748.45$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 714.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 66c | 667.31$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 43c | 645.3$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed No | 49c | 643.08$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked No | 50c | 627.3$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 18c | 531.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 58c | 505.96$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 502.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 476$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…622fbacked No | 73c | 413.48$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked No | 66c | 347.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 278.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 49c | 266$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 75c | 265.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…a9bfbacked No | 50c | 250$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 223.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 46c | 208.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…05e0backed No | 73c | 190.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 20c | 166.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 34c | 159.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed No | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 50c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 51c | 106.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 24c | 100.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…267abacked No | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 30c | 71.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 55c | 64.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 53c | 64.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…112cbacked No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…24ebbacked No | 65c | 44.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…c4eabacked No | 73c | 44.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…bc56backed Yes | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…0f1ebacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 33.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 77c | 25.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…ffb3backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…1e15backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 62c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.