Us Politics · resolved market
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158fcb0b8844c9cdecb95940a3a1a643799ab8d03f6234d449ff344e4bafad6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $869,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $935,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $869,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 440 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe6…2003backed Yes | 22c | 68,191$14,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,880.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…600bbacked No | 78c | 34,581$26,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,615.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 10c | 25,938$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…6e75backed No | 77c | 25,000$19,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,649.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…7801backed Yes | 15c | 20,736$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 23c | 20,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 16c | 19,891$3,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.63 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…f9d1backed Yes | 29c | 17,065$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…fd95backed No | 78c | 16,597$12,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 77c | 15,104$11,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,415.34 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…78ecbacked Yes | 14c | 14,525$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 80c | 11,483$9,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.23 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0968…4babbacked Yes | 23c | 11,438$2,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 76c | 10,095$7,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.07 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 77c | 8,298$6,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…48d1backed Yes | 25c | 8,001$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…5888backed No | 77c | 7,772$5,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed No | 75c | 7,654$5,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…a760backed Yes | 20c | 7,429$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 20c | 6,898$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…fe68backed Yes | 26c | 6,397$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 11c | 5,971$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.19 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b53…22aebacked No | 76c | 5,417$4,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…6bb8backed Yes | 24c | 5,130$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595e…c00cbacked Yes | 23c | 5,060$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…ad27backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…2548backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 79c | 5,000$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf41…7116backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…9217backed Yes | 21c | 4,836$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 4,771$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.29 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…fb1cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,584$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…739bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,565$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a35…5af3backed Yes | 22c | 4,525$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…3683backed Yes | 14c | 4,504$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 75c | 4,410$3,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 13c | 4,409$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.86 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2125…c09fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,396$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…0e3fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,348$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 24c | 4,261$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…36c1backed Yes | 9c | 4,173$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…87a5backed Yes | 24c | 4,152$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 13c | 3,922$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed No | 78c | 3,888$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…4394backed Yes | 24c | 3,751$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…0536backed Yes | 24c | 3,590$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…088dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,537$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…6ea8backed Yes | 20c | 3,496$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…968dbacked No | 80c | 3,389$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 3,303$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.48 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,009$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.35 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…9db4backed Yes | 2c | 2,976$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…45b3backed Yes | 23c | 2,957$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…db06backed Yes | 16c | 2,888$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…ac7dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,839$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,778$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…5525backed Yes | 21c | 2,718$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9c…73bebacked Yes | 20c | 2,702$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 19c | 2,631$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…4896backed Yes | 20c | 2,488$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b6…6d52backed Yes | 24c | 2,479$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…f503backed Yes | 14c | 2,361$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…95d8backed Yes | 23c | 2,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 73c | 2,195$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 13c | 2,079$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,950$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…d7d5backed Yes | 22c | 1,809$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…4f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,807$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 78c | 1,773$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…e234backed Yes | 7c | 1,750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 76c | 1,740$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…8c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…61d3backed Yes | 22c | 1,664$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…a75bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,570$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac90…4d30backed Yes | 20c | 1,569$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 19c | 1,560$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…a8ebbacked No | 77c | 1,518$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,499$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5a…3d4bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,459$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked No | 79c | 1,416$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…aa6dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,402$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 13c | 1,361$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b9…5853backed Yes | 22c | 1,318$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…9879backed Yes | 30c | 1,305$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ca…b887backed Yes | 23c | 1,300$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…67ccbacked Yes | 23c | 1,266$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…e91abacked No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 78c | 1,250$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…75fabacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,165$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299d…3f8fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,140$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 1,138$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…b5eebacked Yes | 19c | 1,111$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…a206backed Yes | 17c | 1,111$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…8e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,085$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2d…7701backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.