TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$869,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$935,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $869,287 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 440 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fe6…2003backed Yes22c68,191$14,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,880.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3436…600bbacked No78c34,581$26,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,615.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes10c25,938$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9b…6e75backed No77c25,000$19,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,649.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fe…7801backed Yes15c20,736$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes16c19,891$3,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.636021.7%13 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf12…f9d1backed Yes29c17,065$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb75…fd95backed No78c16,597$12,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No77c15,104$11,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,415.345851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51cb…78ecbacked Yes14c14,525$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No80c11,483$9,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.234630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0968…4babbacked Yes23c11,438$2,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No76c10,095$7,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.075641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed No77c8,298$6,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bd…48d1backed Yes25c8,001$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b5…5888backed No77c7,772$5,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.495100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed No75c7,654$5,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab5…a760backed Yes20c7,429$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes20c6,898$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.462147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…fe68backed Yes26c6,397$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes11c5,971$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.1913537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b53…22aebacked No76c5,417$4,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82eb…6bb8backed Yes24c5,130$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x595e…c00cbacked Yes23c5,060$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed16…ad27backed Yes20c5,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd10d…2548backed Yes22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No79c5,000$3,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.992123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf41…7116backed Yes13c5,000$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.8290%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…9217backed Yes21c4,836$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c4,771$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.2996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa092…fb1cbacked Yes22c4,584$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b0…739bbacked Yes24c4,565$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a35…5af3backed Yes22c4,525$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd23…3683backed Yes14c4,504$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed No75c4,410$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes13c4,409$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.869533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2125…c09fbacked Yes23c4,396$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…0e3fbacked Yes23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes24c4,261$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd256…36c1backed Yes9c4,173$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2510…87a5backed Yes24c4,152$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked Yes14c4,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Yes13c3,922$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c8…c493backed No78c3,888$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…4394backed Yes24c3,751$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…0536backed Yes24c3,590$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe198…088dbacked Yes21c3,537$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…6ea8backed Yes20c3,496$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…968dbacked No80c3,389$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes10c3,303$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.4835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes20c3,009$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.352425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5431…9db4backed Yes2c2,976$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2643…45b3backed Yes23c2,957$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…db06backed Yes16c2,888$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0469…ac7dbacked Yes22c2,839$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…9e7ebacked Yes22c2,778$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22c…5525backed Yes21c2,718$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.2850%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb9c…73bebacked Yes20c2,702$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes19c2,631$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b1…4896backed Yes20c2,488$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b6…6d52backed Yes24c2,479$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aee…f503backed Yes14c2,361$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4439…95d8backed Yes23c2,219$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No73c2,195$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.751850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes13c2,079$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.292846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c94…816fbacked Yes20c1,950$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be6…d7d5backed Yes22c1,809$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x806e…4f6dbacked Yes23c1,807$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed No78c1,773$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.43953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f4…e234backed Yes7c1,750$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No76c1,740$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9913556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x41f9…8c6bbacked Yes24c1,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2e…61d3backed Yes22c1,664$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.11911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b66…a75bbacked Yes21c1,570$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac90…4d30backed Yes20c1,569$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes19c1,560$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1210834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4a…a8ebbacked No77c1,518$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+94.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes19c1,499$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.727834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5a…3d4bbacked Yes22c1,459$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked No79c1,416$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.322035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36de…aa6dbacked Yes21c1,402$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes13c1,361$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.046028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b9…5853backed Yes22c1,318$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc429…9879backed Yes30c1,305$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09ca…b887backed Yes23c1,300$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d03…67ccbacked Yes23c1,266$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5fc…e91abacked No79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick43cpaid+116.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No78c1,250$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2758143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…75fabacked Yes25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes22c1,165$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299d…3f8fbacked Yes16c1,140$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…5bd4backed Yes20c1,138$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…b5eebacked Yes19c1,111$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.27540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bed…a206backed Yes17c1,111$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…8e14backed Yes20c1,085$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a2d…7701backed Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.