Commodities · resolved market
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6948d8ced801ea6dc51f5def0764a89b958bfbdfccfaf46e37ac1314ab09980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Yes | 75c | 2,242$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 440.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.41 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 422.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.32 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 39c | 370.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 20c | 225$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 54c | 205$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 53c | 180$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed No | 64c | 104.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…2d7dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 87.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 61c | 65.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 32c | 63.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 57.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 27c | 48.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 31c | 34.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 19, 2026?this page
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.