Commodities · resolved market
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6519817ab0fb662a1851a48a8203bc3068f2ee10180be46d109cc3ae811d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 31,456$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…2552backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 75c | 5,258$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.07 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…e56cbacked No | 23c | 4,413$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +209.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 2,970$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 10c | 2,479$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 8c | 2,050$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 1,073$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 78c | 918.94$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 64c | 702.55$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.08 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 18c | 494.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.93 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 15c | 332.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 216.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.91 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 9c | 212.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 22c | 156.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…9240backed Yes | 31c | 95.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 84.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 51.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?this page
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.