Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d8f5dcd9f6d7cca429e895387b260e15287f30f4217dcd4485f4009313e5a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $445,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 13c | 33,663$4,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.83 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 30,394$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.17 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 12,319$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,898$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 14c | 6,094$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.93 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 5,629$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.86 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,295$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.17 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 8c | 4,439$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.55 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 3,755$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 11c | 3,750$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.29 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,738$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.49 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…2610backed Yes | 11c | 3,585$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 3,413$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.69 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 10c | 3,087$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 2,606$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.69 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 13c | 2,427$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 9c | 2,290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,203$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.76 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 14c | 2,091$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,999$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 6c | 1,912$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,897$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 10c | 1,885$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,853$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 13c | 1,754$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.7 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 4c | 1,732$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,653$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.91 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,648$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 14c | 1,565$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…ba41backed Yes | 7c | 1,505$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 10c | 1,392$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 8c | 1,298$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,281$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 10c | 1,206$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 14c | 1,182$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 10c | 1,145$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 15c | 1,115$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 7c | 1,088$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…c315backed Yes | 2c | 1,082$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 9c | 1,052$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 18c | 1,037$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.71 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 12c | 1,002$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 1,001$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324e…1e02backed Yes | 10c | 951.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 11c | 926.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 9c | 917.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 860$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 4c | 820.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 811.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 13c | 803.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…654cbacked Yes | 8c | 785.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…95a7backed Yes | 17c | 699.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…9c0abacked Yes | 2c | 699.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…9d7dbacked Yes | 4c | 674.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 7c | 643.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 6c | 602.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 10c | 600$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 17c | 560$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 18c | 552.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 12c | 550$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 19c | 536.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 7c | 535.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 2c | 530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 10c | 513$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…dfcabacked Yes | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 8c | 499$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…162fbacked Yes | 7c | 489$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 18c | 482.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 21c | 470.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 455.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 11c | 439.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 11c | 420$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Yes | 4c | 415.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…22e3backed Yes | 9c | 405.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 18c | 401.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 7c | 400.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 395.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 17c | 395$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 13c | 362.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 13c | 336.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…05cebacked Yes | 3c | 313$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed Yes | 17c | 308.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 14c | 308.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 13c | 305.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2491backed Yes | 11c | 303.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 16c | 299.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd49…cae9backed Yes | 9c | 286.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 6c | 281.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 8c | 280.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.