Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96f27ac4e8e3880cac7855282c01f3883264e5948ead97a389788e66493756b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $629,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $629,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40bd…bef9backed Yes | 0c | 47,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…0dc7backed Yes | 0c | 34,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…da25backed Yes | 0c | 33,340$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…ec46backed Yes | 0c | 31,120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…ac68backed Yes | 0c | 27,110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…6f1abacked Yes | 0c | 26,440$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0ef2backed Yes | 0c | 24,740$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…1de2backed Yes | 0c | 24,570$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +461%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70bd…b192backed Yes | 0c | 22,220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…ed4bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac2…7054backed Yes | 0c | 20,310$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…6623backed Yes | 0c | 18,870$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe345…5479backed Yes | 0c | 17,790$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…034abacked Yes | 0c | 16,720$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…0230backed Yes | 0c | 16,430$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf432…df06backed Yes | 0c | 15,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…a2c8backed Yes | 0c | 13,850$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…b424backed Yes | 0c | 13,690$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 12,825$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,333$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…6dc0backed Yes | 0c | 8,210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,495$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 5,633$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 9c | 3,738$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.02 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 4c | 3,143$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 9c | 2,900$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 2,496$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.36 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…84a1backed Yes | 2c | 2,270$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,243$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 2,041$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,882$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.2 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 9c | 1,804$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 1,679$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 1,551$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,450$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 1,425$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 8c | 1,099$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 7c | 1,008$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 14c | 820.41$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 8c | 749.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 11c | 723.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 5c | 699.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 648.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 2c | 589.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 9c | 508.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 13c | 507.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…01adbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 7c | 442.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 7c | 438.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 7c | 414.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 412.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…a86abacked Yes | 11c | 409.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 285$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 277.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…c315backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8424…963ebacked Yes | 8c | 202.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 10c | 176.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 13c | 140.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.