Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754744dd883c1542caa945fee00da4731808a3dc58220bab57ec4a6ea3b40ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc84…c643backed Yes | 0c | 38,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…c582backed Yes | 0c | 24,210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…6e34backed Yes | 0c | 21,960$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +207.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…d34fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,620$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…5521backed Yes | 0c | 20,380$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…80f3backed Yes | 0c | 18,770$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6781…1e48backed Yes | 0c | 17,958$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…7b09backed Yes | 0c | 15,852$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…7312backed Yes | 0c | 14,220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 10c | 10,312$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…28c6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,792$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…6dc0backed Yes | 0c | 6,217$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,196$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 9c | 5,754$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.87 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 5,421$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 4c | 3,961$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 2,113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 13c | 2,078$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.18 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 4c | 1,841$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,615$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 17c | 1,529$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,378$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,360$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,182$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 1,175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 7c | 900$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…84a1backed Yes | 6c | 852.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 699.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 635.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 16c | 506.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 427$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 12c | 410$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 11c | 403.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…95a7backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 11c | 371.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 11c | 325$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 323.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…a86abacked Yes | 15c | 297.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 15c | 280.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 13c | 252$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8424…963ebacked Yes | 12c | 207.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…c315backed Yes | 7c | 205.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…e429backed Yes | 15c | 182.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 15c | 162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…7b25backed Yes | 13c | 158.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 8c | 145.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…0210backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 14c | 118.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…278fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…60f8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.