Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec631bcf34cc0b21d15f0ab2066a77f6671334c2f45ac42e4c43ca832fc51c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $804,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $649,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $804,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa55f…f4f4backed Yes | 0c | 160,100$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 80,356$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43f…c86dbacked Yes | 0c | 59,089$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…c8a0backed Yes | 0c | 40,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f849backed Yes | 0c | 31,701$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…224fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,742$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,580$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…07c2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…7d09backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 8,680$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,323$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…2610backed Yes | 2c | 8,042$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…1105backed Yes | 0c | 5,792$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 3,443$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…0db7backed Yes | 2c | 3,125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed Yes | 15c | 3,031$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 8c | 2,307$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,228$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,927$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,901$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 1,638$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,564$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,539$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 17c | 1,450$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,050$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 1,050$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.77 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,044$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…6dc0backed Yes | 3c | 989.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 14c | 907.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 15c | 906.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 8c | 905.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 879.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 17c | 822.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 781$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 768.26$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 15c | 730.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 699.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…ba26backed Yes | 2c | 649.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +636.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…9b66backed Yes | 2c | 628.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 16c | 550.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 15c | 518$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…95a7backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 15c | 397.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…f87dbacked Yes | 18c | 383.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…9d7dbacked Yes | 13c | 345.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…84a1backed Yes | 15c | 331.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 15c | 324.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 14c | 311.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…dd06backed Yes | 16c | 291.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…a86abacked Yes | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…6363backed Yes | 16c | 274.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 13c | 265.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 19c | 263.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 252.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 11c | 227.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 13c | 225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 13c | 202.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…fa4bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 16c | 190.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 18c | 189.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 14c | 166.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…c315backed Yes | 14c | 145.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…db31backed Yes | 17c | 144.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 138.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 18c | 135.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…bc0dbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…51f6backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9174…3af9backed Yes | 17c | 119.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfb…afeebacked Yes | 18c | 119.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +228.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…d028backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8424…963ebacked Yes | 17c | 108.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 12c | 100.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…5123backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.