Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b9e7bfe69e5f8e757406110715afc4a6dc830e407198be7ac525e2ce6b495cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6872…fe87backed Yes | 2c | 44,296$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +1,115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 15,993$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 15,258$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.09 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…84a1backed Yes | 0c | 13,893$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 13,846$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.75 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…7191backed Yes | 0c | 11,984$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 1c | 11,263$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…97b4backed Yes | 6c | 5,600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…2227backed Yes | 1c | 4,730$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 1c | 4,543$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 3,679$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…63b2backed Yes | 0c | 3,560$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 10c | 3,367$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.43 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…5a4ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,245$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +539.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,147$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 2c | 2,953$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…9f34backed Yes | 1c | 2,669$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…5ffcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,650$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a8…90c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,646$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 2,009$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…c315backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,308$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…654cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,010$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…92afbacked Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 8c | 805.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…7b30backed Yes | 2c | 780.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 729.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 634.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…8ab4backed Yes | 4c | 546.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 535.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 8c | 417.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 234$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…c817backed Yes | 6c | 199.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 6c | 179.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.