Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806f7abef2f183ab5557e6996adc91b2c3dae3286d00a4efb38b2a05ebb124ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,151,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,073,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,151,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 400 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…1f49backed Yes | 15c | 70,478$10,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,906.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…b139backed Yes | 1c | 50,100$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,448.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +7,592.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 25c | 36,107$8,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,244.93 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 42c | 31,858$13,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,333.32 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 13c | 25,014$3,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,862.1 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…f959backed Yes | 79c | 20,417$16,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,207.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 22c | 20,000$4,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,559.3 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 47c | 19,107$9,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,069.3 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 53c | 17,923$9,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,355.1 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 17,323$11,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,909.98 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 57c | 16,870$9,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,326.74 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 35c | 15,057$5,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,745.96 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 39c | 14,628$5,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,771.04 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 24c | 14,010$3,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,629.19 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 77c | 13,812$10,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,645.61 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 14c | 11,460$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.45 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…fe87backed Yes | 3c | 10,939$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,638.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +1,115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…97b4backed Yes | 3c | 10,147$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,812.23 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 24c | 9,303$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,048.31 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 42c | 8,849$3,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,702.71 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 7,695$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,886.18 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 6,356$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,055.04 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…997dbacked No | 13c | 5,000$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 43c | 4,931$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,803.61 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 23c | 4,277$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 3c | 3,901$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 35c | 3,590$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.38 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…4458backed Yes | 4c | 3,554$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +1,321.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 38c | 3,422$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 24c | 3,343$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.22 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 25c | 3,264$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.49 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 66c | 3,225$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.38 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 19c | 3,213$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +168.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 69c | 2,885$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes | 32c | 2,813$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 45c | 2,537$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked No | 18c | 2,497$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 50c | 2,461$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.6 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 25c | 2,437$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.6 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed No | 35c | 2,316$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 49c | 2,294$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.54 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 25c | 2,258$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.76 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324e…1e02backed Yes | 75c | 2,245$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 2,215$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 2,214$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.66 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 1c | 2,152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 30c | 2,065$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 77c | 2,020$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,919$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.96 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 35c | 1,882$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.41 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,873$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.08 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed No | 10c | 1,834$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 50c | 1,752$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.16 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 31c | 1,676$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.97 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,655$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.71 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 50c | 1,619$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 36c | 1,544$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.53 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…7918backed Yes | 80c | 1,537$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 27c | 1,462$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 3c | 1,450$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.1 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 54c | 1,427$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,356$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.17 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 26c | 1,326$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.14 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 14c | 1,308$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 38c | 1,285$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.45 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…0cb9backed Yes | 76c | 1,278$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 78c | 1,260$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.12 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.37 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 27c | 1,226$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.49 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 38c | 1,212$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…b5a4backed Yes | 75c | 1,184$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,160$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.99 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 67c | 1,138$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.03 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 2c | 1,120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 25c | 1,092$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.89 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 48c | 1,082$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 1,065$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.14 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 2c | 1,059$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 17c | 1,036$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.14 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed No | 28c | 1,018$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.47 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…ef31backed No | 51c | 980.84$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…50b7backed Yes | 7c | 973.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 41c | 936.69$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.83 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…5a4ebacked Yes | 8c | 894.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +539.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…3b83backed Yes | 66c | 887.36$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…1a68backed Yes | 2c | 860.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +514.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…654cbacked Yes | 31c | 857.25$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…c315backed Yes | 5c | 840.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 20c | 790.35$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 13c | 745.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 740.71$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 71c | 720.44$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 11c | 710$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.07 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…656cbacked No | 39c | 700$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 70c | 699.96$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.61 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 55c | 696.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.