Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xace6aa14cb0295b0a46eb9ed38c54ee4baf71b5c571e209b27390286456d2ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 24,539$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.49 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 16c | 21,716$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.39 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 13,116$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.44 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 12,161$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.18 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 8c | 9,878$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.44 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 15c | 8,576$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.79 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,432$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.74 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 5,154$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.19 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…a1d6backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,736$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 4,481$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.93 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 4,212$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.37 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 13c | 4,070$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 15c | 3,592$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.96 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 3,567$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.28 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 5c | 3,344$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 14c | 3,333$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.45 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 8c | 3,161$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 3,115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 10c | 3,084$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.81 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 2,576$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 12c | 2,498$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 15c | 2,412$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.48 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 20c | 2,123$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,003$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,988$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 19c | 1,879$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes | 13c | 1,859$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 15c | 1,699$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 14c | 1,614$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.81 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 16c | 1,585$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.5 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 16c | 1,502$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 79c | 1,462$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…3e18backed Yes | 16c | 1,445$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,443$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 6c | 1,358$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 16c | 1,308$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…162fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,240$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 20c | 1,200$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 16c | 1,136$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 10c | 1,031$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 1,025$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 9c | 1,013$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…0205backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 999.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…f959backed Yes | 16c | 987.44$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 895.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 22c | 848.3$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 16c | 823.65$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 10c | 806.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 4c | 736.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 7c | 736.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 733.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 730$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 724.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 11c | 710.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 19c | 651.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 650$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…e00abacked Yes | 19c | 622$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 17c | 615.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…2610backed Yes | 22c | 604.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…5a0bbacked Yes | 9c | 559.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 23c | 537.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 19c | 536.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 10c | 528.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 20c | 518.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed Yes | 9c | 506.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…dfcabacked Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…95a7backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 13c | 499.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 15c | 496.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 20c | 495.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 9c | 460.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 16c | 450$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…f87dbacked Yes | 23c | 448.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 8c | 444.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 5c | 436.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 9c | 428.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed Yes | 7c | 427.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 399.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 8c | 394.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 21c | 388.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…60f8backed Yes | 15c | 376$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 9c | 374.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?this page
- Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14?No won
- Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.