TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iraq before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,780,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,824,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,780,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,007 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b92…8bb4backed No1c1,113,858$6,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,317.251612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…363ebacked No1c786,391$4,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,97610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed No1c432,612$4,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,612.3166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked No1c412,460$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a9a…a2e5backed No1c410,467$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,982.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0202…7871backed No1c409,796$4,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,757.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ec…5227backed No1c386,665$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed No1c338,162$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbd…c83abacked No1c303,454$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287e…72ccbacked No1c287,309$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,596.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3945…4f1bbacked No0c277,717$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb38…9e24backed No1c266,395$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No1c255,557$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.462045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked No1c255,526$3,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,293.23156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ac…a838backed No1c250,690$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No1c239,371$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.47229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc9…2070backed No1c238,936$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fdb…37dfbacked No0c233,511$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No2c233,486$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.342458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb21…e043backed No1c231,327$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.181010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0983…7adbbacked No2c225,972$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,920.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No2c207,539$4,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,263.784619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed No0c206,408$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.97714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+81.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f60…16c7backed No0c204,100$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004d…b850backed No1c191,140$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x657a…b118backed No3c181,796$5,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,445.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5838…549ebacked No1c171,599$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc9…7f52backed No1c165,474$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57fe…804dbacked No0c159,347$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.9137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-66.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c5…28e5backed No1c156,797$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb48a…dad5backed No1c154,525$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda07…4123backed No1c144,277$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84c…9b1cbacked No0c141,838$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5730…a3f3backed No1c139,345$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0654…cd3fbacked No1c137,961$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed No1c136,046$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…0ebebacked No1c135,632$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x278a…cd11backed No1c134,216$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…53c8backed No1c129,002$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No1c128,337$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.673312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1412…c8bbbacked No1c127,114$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2372…8881backed No1c125,139$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.421127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No3c123,289$3,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,293.712744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No1c117,000$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6981421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…5df2backed No1c114,852$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec38…5110backed No1c113,095$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e52…fad0backed No1c112,471$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b9…61e0backed No1c111,618$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.91580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+80.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c98…bf99backed No0c110,086$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ab…f48bbacked No1c109,998$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa971…3a46backed No24c106,945$25,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,917.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46f…9ab9backed No1c103,865$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf396…453fbacked No1c103,434$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa358…066dbacked No0c100,083$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e25…814abacked No1c100,000$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.6280%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No1c100,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53036227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e71…ffc1backed No1c97,470$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0a…d55dbacked No1c97,408$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No1c96,499$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.682015%3 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked No1c95,104$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.924628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2796…4562backed No1c94,409$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d5…1567backed No1c93,956$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad6…d30fbacked No2c90,580$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5349…a7b1backed No13c88,427$11,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,213.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8e90…16acbacked No1c87,922$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b1…c354backed No2c85,882$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc993…fdffbacked No0c82,769$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa272…a1a9backed No1c81,604$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No3c80,778$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79115743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe99f…78c6backed No1c76,458$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5087…c157backed No1c74,166$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.591315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x669c…e203backed No1c72,870$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No2c72,179$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.75850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc228…f9e6backed No1c72,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc704…451dbacked No1c71,585$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad5…1e9ebacked No1c71,413$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb14…86c8backed No1c70,215$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3246…3d0bbacked No1c68,737$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb810…b043backed No1c66,630$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No2c66,609$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.162445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe3…fc5cbacked No1c65,405$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e14…c9b4backed No1c64,784$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b2…be2cbacked No1c62,810$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0af…8b9bbacked No9c61,517$5,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,281.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba5b…7e4bbacked No2c61,096$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe030…8852backed No1c60,758$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b97…7682backed No1c60,472$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34aa…10afbacked No1c60,337$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ca…bac0backed No2c59,607$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked No3c59,128$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.242516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x240d…2c44backed No1c59,100$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3075…f2c1backed No2c58,998$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+153.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd8…1a6fbacked No0c55,986$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8a…4521backed No2c55,833$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.021414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf831…40c6backed No1c55,086$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a2…9bbabacked No0c53,684$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.37450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+116.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc4c…4fc2backed No1c53,667$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+195%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc399…6c8cbacked No1c53,070$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a4…8e41backed No1c52,947$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a2…d4f2backed No1c51,437$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.