Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd008cd1470934fb24806d2c48bb07ef76814932ab14ca97092503b885a31057f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,115,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $971,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,115,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 83,498$8,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,372.5 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 19c | 52,151$10,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,152.82 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 12c | 30,090$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.96 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 6c | 18,493$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c63…7421backed No | 64c | 17,183$10,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,227.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,367$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.44 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 12c | 12,700$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.59 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 12,502$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 77c | 11,108$8,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.88 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…1c02backed Yes | 0c | 10,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 78c | 10,271$7,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.85 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,026$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 30c | 7,982$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.08 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 15c | 7,885$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.87 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 6c | 7,751$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 59c | 7,336$4,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.76 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 1c | 7,257$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 7c | 7,057$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 19c | 6,617$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.06 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 6,600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.3 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 1c | 5,618$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…9fcebacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 22c | 5,122$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.86 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f34…e683backed Yes | 1c | 5,088$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 20c | 5,020$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.36 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 50c | 4,912$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 26c | 4,860$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.07 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 30c | 4,813$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.31 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 4,600$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 15c | 4,477$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.16 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 16c | 4,447$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.8 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 25c | 4,445$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.14 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 16c | 3,978$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.74 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 3,954$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 22c | 3,739$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.26 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 2c | 3,387$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc6…165bbacked No | 75c | 3,333$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 21c | 3,320$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.34 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.71 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 8c | 2,881$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.03 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,676$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.35 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 43c | 2,476$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.22 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 36c | 2,456$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.53 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 17c | 2,392$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.29 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 66c | 2,289$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 4c | 2,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked No | 60c | 2,264$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,254$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 64c | 2,250$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.18 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 8c | 2,221$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked No | 70c | 2,215$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ada3backed Yes | 58c | 2,180$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 13c | 2,006$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.46 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 71c | 2,004$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 24c | 1,966$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.87 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 59c | 1,907$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 21c | 1,750$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.64 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed No | 57c | 1,672$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,669$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked No | 77c | 1,640$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.83 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 28c | 1,497$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 69c | 1,472$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.08 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 4c | 1,460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 30c | 1,421$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.21 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,375$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.59 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 21c | 1,312$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.94 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed No | 63c | 1,301$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.24 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…50b7backed Yes | 19c | 1,296$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,252$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 1,250$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.85 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 8c | 1,243$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.45 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Yes | 17c | 1,195$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 8c | 1,162$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4d…64a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…74b2backed Yes | 49c | 1,101$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,093$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…2998backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,030$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,028$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf0…2089backed Yes | 24c | 1,006$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.98 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…07eebacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 990.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…aabcbacked No | 80c | 938.2$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed No | 65c | 930.11$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.12 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 899.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 6c | 899.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…d820backed Yes | 34c | 896.31$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc5…afe2backed Yes | 3c | 895.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 12c | 861.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 15c | 857$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.