Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a1432bfadbd291220a489f439fbde7c9081bfa6e6151c336e79d2cbfc9a828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $782,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $513,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $782,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x320b…1968backed Yes | 0c | 45,820$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 31,557$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…3f46backed Yes | 0c | 30,411$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e8…0b38backed Yes | 0c | 29,993$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…9659backed Yes | 0c | 29,579$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…c825backed Yes | 0c | 26,850$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4869backed Yes | 0c | 26,840$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…9550backed Yes | 0c | 25,990$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…bb3bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc9…befbbacked Yes | 0c | 23,060$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…995bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,833$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…a151backed Yes | 0c | 20,920$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…e9bdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5477…4d99backed Yes | 0c | 20,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…f9f5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,243$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 8,067$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 0c | 5,812$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,372$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…5f86backed Yes | 1c | 4,802$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…a295backed Yes | 1c | 4,545$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…6a28backed Yes | 0c | 4,478$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…415fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,469$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3031…9e78backed Yes | 1c | 4,292$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…b662backed Yes | 1c | 3,891$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe696…a278backed Yes | 1c | 3,574$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d6…86f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8921…42a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,147$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…c765backed Yes | 1c | 3,115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c92…9fb0backed Yes | 1c | 3,032$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,888$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,712$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…fc8abacked Yes | 1c | 2,651$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82d…d465backed Yes | 1c | 2,644$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e79…292abacked Yes | 1c | 2,426$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…e97ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,408$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 2,284$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 0c | 2,240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…81aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,065$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6448…0045backed Yes | 1c | 2,060$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3f…19fabacked Yes | 2c | 2,045$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 2,016$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 6c | 2,014$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…2b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,012$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…3345backed Yes | 1c | 1,801$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…9dc5backed Yes | 2c | 1,757$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…bf41backed Yes | 2c | 1,573$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…3b43backed Yes | 1c | 1,526$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,515$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…bdbfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,474$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…8b8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,365$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…b94cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,345$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…ed41backed Yes | 2c | 1,337$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…53c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,285$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…8cd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…b806backed Yes | 2c | 1,248$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…2396backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…699bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,184$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…e490backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…3f1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,147$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf46…35dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,080$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 1c | 999.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 2c | 999.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…9dd2backed Yes | 2c | 985$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…22f8backed Yes | 2c | 955.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…9ad6backed Yes | 2c | 933.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 2c | 930.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 2c | 907.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13e…f4a4backed Yes | 2c | 902.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…f28dbacked Yes | 3c | 851.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1a…fa3abacked Yes | 1c | 798.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fb…1bc3backed Yes | 3c | 789.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 2c | 749.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…d182backed Yes | 4c | 747.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…29b9backed Yes | 4c | 610.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked Yes | 3c | 587.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799d…20fbbacked Yes | 4c | 569$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…356fbacked Yes | 2c | 441.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…2fedbacked Yes | 7c | 388.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…abb1backed Yes | 9c | 318.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f6…363abacked Yes | 8c | 283.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…aa80backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.