Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0bbb5818cce0afc4afc250fb19ca73752cc0058cfba09a62bcdc48ae9d629af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeaf…18bebacked Yes | 0c | 21,833$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 20,490$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.04 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…865fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,835$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…4ca5backed Yes | 0c | 10,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bc…51fdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,886$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 0c | 9,771$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…9fcebacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked Yes | 1c | 8,852$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,285$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,731$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 1c | 4,403$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe68…30f3backed Yes | 0c | 3,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 25c | 3,207$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.79 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,806$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 2,407$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,174$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…6728backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 5c | 1,781$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,378$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 1,212$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…50b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,183$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 1c | 999.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 899.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 663.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 5c | 620$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 4c | 426$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 6c | 332$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…2610backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?this page
- Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.