Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3c7a3cb2036a0d6c187e65805be394aa8be89ec776bcfb4d98041a8a83a5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 79c | 3,151$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked No | 20c | 2,238$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 75c | 1,551$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.42 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…ba7bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,400$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 76c | 1,253$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffed…05dabacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 78c | 999.97$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 78c | 961.44$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 22c | 828$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…6a67backed No | 41c | 611.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 19c | 605$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No | 28c | 580$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…4407backed No | 28c | 578.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 24c | 557.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 22c | 550$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 70c | 505.72$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 70c | 500.25$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 29c | 468.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…059ebacked No | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…7147backed No | 22c | 447.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…7132backed No | 22c | 446.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 78c | 427.51$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…650ebacked No | 24c | 414.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 76c | 410.92$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 77c | 367.8$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5c…5d56backed No | 22c | 342.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 340$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…8249backed No | 33c | 305.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 76c | 299.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…4931backed Yes | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 30c | 294.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80de…ef85backed Yes | 71c | 286.56$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 273.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c8…fc49backed No | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 20c | 244.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 71c | 215.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 23c | 207.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 80c | 206.39$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f3a1backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 77c | 194.01$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 24c | 187.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 69c | 187.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed No | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed No | 29c | 177.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 26c | 175.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…165abacked No | 26c | 174.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 78c | 167.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…d00fbacked No | 21c | 164.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked No | 31c | 162.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed No | 30c | 162.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked No | 30c | 151.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…05fbbacked Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 80c | 144.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…33cdbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…729ebacked Yes | 62c | 125.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…6358backed No | 24c | 125.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed No | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…c07abacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…6784backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 78c | 120.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…dd65backed No | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…8aacbacked No | 23c | 100.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…5009backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…5772backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…8137backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf0…7eb0backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +497.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed No | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 36c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…a456backed No | 22c | 91.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f9…5aa7backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6667…657ebacked No | 22c | 90.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 78c | 89.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…c2e2backed No | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…dd34backed No | 26c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 77c | 77.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…d16bbacked No | 26c | 75.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed No | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…7b14backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…e52dbacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…cec7backed No | 22c | 69.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5ed3backed Yes | 80c | 64.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…d733backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6849…3578backed Yes | 80c | 53.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes | 54c | 51.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.