Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2314e7f043881010b65cb14908494dfdc8b5ec9416fac883d4940873f3a080b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 0c | 50,418$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe837…739fbacked Yes | 5c | 27,543$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 3c | 14,064$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,763$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 27c | 4,696$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.09 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…123ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,234$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,208$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 9c | 1,666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 9c | 1,666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 24c | 1,319$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,200$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 12c | 603.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 50c | 481.07$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 75c | 386.06$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd64a…2fa2backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 35c | 221$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…0139backed No | 36c | 196.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…dbd4backed Yes | 53c | 87.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…0332backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…03e7backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…d777backed Yes | 70c | 17.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21?this page
- Will Trump sign 10 or more executive orders on January 21?No won
- Will Trump sign between 1 and 3 executive orders on January 21?Yes won
- Will Trump sign between 4 and 6 executive orders on January 21?No won
- Will Trump sign between 7 and 9 executive orders on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.