Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c099a464f508b907916b57b9b16715f37a0086aa14815078565c6514f2d4843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $925,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $559,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $925,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 84,509$10,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,853.49 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 6c | 57,200$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,298.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 2c | 37,808$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.78 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 8c | 23,165$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.47 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 16c | 17,337$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.7 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 19c | 15,472$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.02 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 8c | 13,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…ba41backed Yes | 15c | 11,355$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…24ebbacked Yes | 16c | 11,329$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 8c | 11,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 18c | 10,235$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.77 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 12c | 7,841$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.97 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 6,853$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.83 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 7c | 6,465$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.36 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 10c | 6,348$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.69 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 18c | 6,190$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.47 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 5,970$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.84 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked No | 79c | 5,891$4,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 5,766$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.19 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 1c | 5,742$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 5,500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 20c | 4,960$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.33 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,701$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.46 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,669$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.7 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 17c | 4,496$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.9 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 4,439$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.52 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 13c | 4,411$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.31 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked No | 67c | 4,380$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,312$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.58 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 4,262$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.62 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…48abbacked Yes | 1c | 4,256$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 12c | 4,215$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,101$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.85 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 16c | 3,394$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 14c | 3,333$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.06 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 14c | 3,313$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.98 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 3,242$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.83 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 14c | 3,081$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.12 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,881$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.77 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 2,790$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…b570backed Yes | 8c | 2,761$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 79c | 2,724$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 10c | 2,650$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.09 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,477$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 11c | 2,424$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.49 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 8c | 2,378$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 12c | 2,176$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.44 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,076$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,906$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.92 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,867$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.35 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 11c | 1,853$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 14c | 1,851$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.33 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,850$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 11c | 1,842$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 10c | 1,836$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 13c | 1,789$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…df18backed Yes | 2c | 1,719$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 10c | 1,708$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Yes | 11c | 1,705$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 13c | 1,643$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 10c | 1,619$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 18c | 1,615$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.15 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes | 18c | 1,609$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 8c | 1,571$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 21c | 1,551$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.08 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,551$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 1,550$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 17c | 1,549$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,545$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,533$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.12 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,507$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.72 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…8a53backed Yes | 17c | 1,443$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 1,409$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.31 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 11c | 1,359$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.86 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 13c | 1,357$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 16c | 1,356$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.74 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 18c | 1,354$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 23c | 1,332$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.7 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab7…d546backed Yes | 13c | 1,329$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…0853backed Yes | 29c | 1,327$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…1f47backed Yes | 20c | 1,324$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 1,277$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,275$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 12c | 1,235$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 10c | 1,189$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 25c | 1,188$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.79 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…7788backed Yes | 8c | 1,186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c2debacked Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0810backed Yes | 9c | 1,140$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 13c | 1,109$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 18c | 1,090$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 1,082$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…61ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,079$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…466fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,078$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 20c | 1,006$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d7…def8backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.