Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ffe3ed3e37f12ac0a2fae48e4c96bf733c5d897176a8479122a96c68aac750
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $543,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 44,206$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 40,448$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.49 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 2c | 17,866$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.9 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 21c | 16,406$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.67 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 11,212$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.72 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked Yes | 5c | 9,065$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.41 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 8,839$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…4689backed Yes | 2c | 8,837$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed Yes | 10c | 8,335$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.51 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 9c | 7,306$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.39 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 6c | 7,200$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.67 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 6,340$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.37 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,377$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 0c | 5,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 2c | 4,685$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,434$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 14c | 3,449$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.64 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,929$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.52 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 10c | 2,887$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.67 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 16c | 2,848$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.34 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 3c | 2,792$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,435$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.67 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 23c | 2,357$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.17 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,283$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 9c | 2,266$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.49 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 17c | 2,261$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.36 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,213$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,121$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 14c | 2,100$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…f9a9backed Yes | 28c | 2,080$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,004$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.62 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 14c | 1,913$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.9 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 5c | 1,913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 3c | 1,837$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 25c | 1,744$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.7 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,712$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.71 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,497$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.07 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 17c | 1,425$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.47 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 19c | 1,406$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 18c | 1,400$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 18c | 1,325$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.18 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,323$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 17c | 1,293$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,261$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 9c | 1,250$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 16c | 1,200$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…da61backed Yes | 10c | 1,199$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ea…c102backed Yes | 20c | 1,141$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 3c | 1,129$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 10c | 1,096$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…2171backed Yes | 17c | 1,069$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 19c | 1,057$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 19c | 1,013$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 17c | 1,001$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 6c | 954.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee85…7777backed Yes | 3c | 920.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 20c | 873.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 3c | 854.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 22c | 837.41$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 25c | 831.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.79 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 2c | 830.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 15c | 793.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 3c | 786.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 15c | 770$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 16c | 760.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fb…1ccdbacked Yes | 2c | 756.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…e6f5backed Yes | 17c | 756.36$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 749.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 13c | 743.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 22c | 716.18$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 17c | 715.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 22c | 715.44$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 80c | 699.98$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 17c | 698.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 17c | 678.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 4c | 607.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 15c | 607.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab7…d546backed Yes | 16c | 600.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 15c | 599.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…9189backed Yes | 20c | 590$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 587.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 19c | 566$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 16c | 555.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e7…0af7backed Yes | 13c | 538.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 517.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 12c | 516.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…057abacked Yes | 10c | 501.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…092cbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 13c | 498$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 6c | 481.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 8c | 469.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…735fbacked Yes | 15c | 466.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.