Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 100-119 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72594ec4f1686e8113a11f5812d7cc7198ea3af86e3bdced9e56d1593237edc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 1c | 3,048$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 1,163$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.78 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 391.76$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 18c | 340.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes | 31c | 226.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 155.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 154.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…e0d2backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…9c96backed Yes | 23c | 47.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56a…a202backed Yes | 35c | 37.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 100-119 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Trump post 120-139 times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Trump post 140-159 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 160-179 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 180-199 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 200-219 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 80-99 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.