Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9623c5216556a9b9f40cce7b285b50cca409a5ee2532f806846c9c4ab2ece2d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 1,344$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 852.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 549.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 492.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…95c0backed Yes | 13c | 346.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 8c | 340.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 295.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…403abacked Yes | 9c | 293.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 4c | 256.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 6c | 193$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 132.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…31dcbacked Yes | 13c | 115.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 15c | 101.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 15c | 97.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…55e3backed Yes | 14c | 90.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 87.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 17c | 62.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21?this page
- Will Trump post 100-119 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 120-139 times March 14-21?Yes won
- Will Trump post 140-159 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 160-179 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 180-199 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 200-219 times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21?No won
- Will Trump post 80-99 times March 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.