Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e68b29be798c37448e00f83180358d0edb02393f8d6a68d50d1175798865287

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,582,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,572,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,582,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 615 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes	11c	85,098$9,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,310.1	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes	21c	69,659$14,514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,514.39	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes	13c	67,282$8,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,802.37	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c1…9648backed Yes	12c	60,000$7,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,000	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes	18c	54,955$9,913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,913.07	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x281d…0c73backed Yes	8c	50,189$4,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,076.49	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	1c	45,665$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.23	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c6…01c0backed Yes	21c	38,619$8,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,121.34	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	4c	37,683$1,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,642.06	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes	14c	36,772$5,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,150.85	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	28cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	15c	32,774$4,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,849.56	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238c…5c20backed Yes	4c	32,575$1,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,298	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f1…f66fbacked Yes	17c	26,613$4,394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,394.24	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	78c	26,332$20,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,892.97	118	53.4%63 W · 55 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eec…ea07backed Yes	13c	24,756$3,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,202.02	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	24,399$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.78	134	4.5%6 W · 128 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e91…b586backed Yes	8c	22,230$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes	24c	20,577$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes	3c	20,056$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.2	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes	9c	19,283$1,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,784.31	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes	16c	19,147$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes	16c	18,700$2,935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,935	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0915…67c3backed Yes	27c	18,507$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked Yes	15c	18,000$2,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,749.13	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+51.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes	2c	17,675$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.44	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes	15c	17,083$2,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,586.01	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes	16c	16,174$2,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,520	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-19%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff60…83c0backed Yes	24c	15,596$3,814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,814.03	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9351…db66backed Yes	19c	15,498$2,956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,955.79	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1c…1bb7backed Yes	2c	15,424$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes	0c	15,331$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	10c	15,214$1,456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,455.62	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	-18.7wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes	18c	15,025$2,760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,760.3	82	31.7%26 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes	18c	15,000$2,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,749.43	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes	15c	14,537$2,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,189.89	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf082…dad6backed Yes	18c	14,499$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,625.39	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2a…81c1backed Yes	0c	14,472$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec9a…dad1backed Yes	13c	14,385$1,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,910	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes	4c	13,861$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf735…6157backed Yes	17c	13,594$2,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,288.46	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	13c	13,431$1,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,744.03	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes	15c	13,244$2,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,048.8	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes	21c	13,000$2,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,720	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes	21c	12,797$2,671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,671.16	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2daa…a350backed Yes	23c	12,665$2,965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,964.95	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	77c	12,629$9,662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,966.79	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	8c	11,918$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.9	185	30.3%56 W · 129 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…78c9backed Yes	8c	11,829$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.44	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5edc…4d06backed Yes	17c	11,643$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes	3c	11,505$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.46	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873d…28fdbacked Yes	0c	11,466$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	23c	11,213$2,548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,548.04	160	29.4%47 W · 113 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90a…b957backed Yes	18c	11,196$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	18cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes	5c	11,000$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.87	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bc…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	10,680$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+81.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…a348backed Yes	16c	10,598$1,727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,727.04	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd5c…62bbbacked Yes	23c	10,494$2,393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,393.23	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ca…7a73backed Yes	7c	10,055$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.02	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	19c	10,021$1,885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,885.1	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed Yes	15c	10,006$1,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500.95	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc2e…9704backed Yes	9c	10,000$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfa…b185backed Yes	1c	9,677$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-27%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes	22c	9,647$2,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,147.88	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes	2c	8,700$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+52%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes	19c	8,514$1,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,581.91	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes	26c	8,503$2,233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,232.89	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+31%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…1b9dbacked Yes	22c	8,437$1,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,850	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+504.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes	13c	8,419$1,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.36	78	34.6%27 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5221…531cbacked Yes	3c	8,325$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7218…4a76backed Yes	23c	8,064$1,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,850	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc430…3c45backed Yes	1c	8,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa614…6fc8backed Yes	4c	7,893$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.7	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+185.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d3…c5fdbacked Yes	28c	7,836$2,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,193.95	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb5…1dc6backed Yes	24c	7,120$1,744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,743.89	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55c4…4b34backed Yes	5c	7,092$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.04	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes	21c	6,972$1,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,480.51	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes	4c	6,965$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.18	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb48…1c27backed Yes	4c	6,823$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.07	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+174.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa55b…f844backed Yes	4c	6,797$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.94	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed Yes	16c	6,707$1,081 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080.97	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes	5c	6,700$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.37	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…38aebacked Yes	19c	6,572$1,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,226.38	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes	18c	6,523$1,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,205.41	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes	27c	6,482$1,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,737.04	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.30per pick	26cpaid	+100%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes	13c	6,436$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.6	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed Yes	32c	6,301$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3531…d848backed Yes	18c	6,202$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120.19	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe743…7038backed Yes	19c	6,166$1,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,162.07	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	77c	6,100$4,687 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,412.97	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd150…55a6backed Yes	19c	6,061$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.11	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+101.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed Yes	15c	6,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989f…f18abacked Yes	26c	5,837$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6b…6027backed Yes	26c	5,821$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38cf…1d60backed Yes	22c	5,791$1,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…2d56backed Yes	24c	5,516$1,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,312	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-51%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbffa…0d57backed Yes	25c	5,445$1,341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,341.44	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb7…c940backed Yes	7c	5,409$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.3wins	+0.21per pick	25cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22b6…3f65backed Yes	8c	5,332$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3da…1680backed Yes	4c	5,257$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes	21c	5,250$1,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,112.5	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?this page
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?No won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event