Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c721bf2f5848dbdc7cadc5f80f13ceb1f48dccbb6c1569142a2da13b3d659e0

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,927,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,126,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,927,687 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes	3c	138,306$4,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,498.54	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes	7c	127,669$8,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,762.34	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	64,940$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.8	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c1…9648backed Yes	2c	59,999$1,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238c…5c20backed Yes	1c	58,152$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.67	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	3c	53,556$1,674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,674.18	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes	7c	52,368$3,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,421.58	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes	3c	44,045$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	42,956$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.51	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6056…496ebacked Yes	7c	40,769$2,769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,769	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb48…1c27backed Yes	6c	32,651$1,889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,888.62	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+174.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked Yes	4c	31,194$1,223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,223.06	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+51.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes	1c	25,833$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.09	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…2d56backed Yes	8c	25,343$2,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,138	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-51%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	24,795$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	134	4.5%6 W · 128 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x281d…0c73backed Yes	3c	23,105$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.35	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e91…b586backed Yes	2c	22,496$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes	7c	22,407$1,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,532.31	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f1…f66fbacked Yes	5c	21,416$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,136.27	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa958…de3dbacked Yes	6c	20,482$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,317.85	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes	2c	19,746$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.22	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes	3c	18,399$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.52	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes	3c	16,581$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.61	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-60%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5c…62bbbacked Yes	8c	16,000$1,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,280	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04d…12d3backed Yes	7c	15,330$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7218…4a76backed Yes	8c	15,089$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff60…83c0backed Yes	9c	14,965$1,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,325.05	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd150…55a6backed Yes	8c	13,120$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.97	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+101.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5816…60a7backed Yes	4c	13,052$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.06	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	5c	12,717$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.97	167	44.3%74 W · 93 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes	5c	12,446$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a4b…17eabacked Yes	2c	12,347$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b1…8625backed Yes	8c	12,058$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020.06	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes	7c	11,813$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.35	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…4d06backed Yes	4c	11,772$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2893…1534backed Yes	5c	11,403$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.18	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+163.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69fc…3f73backed Yes	4c	11,143$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.07	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+59.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ca…7a73backed Yes	3c	11,080$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.02	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cf…1d60backed Yes	6c	10,865$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c6…01c0backed Yes	6c	10,661$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.32	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes	4c	10,000$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.98	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	28cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec2a…81c1backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes	6c	10,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	48	25%12 W · 36 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+108.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes	4c	9,591$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.63	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2281…34c3backed Yes	7c	9,372$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.38	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes	6c	9,000$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2e…9704backed Yes	3c	9,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	8,821$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.3	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	-3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0915…67c3backed Yes	6c	8,333$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9351…db66backed Yes	8c	7,288$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes	8c	7,031$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.69	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf082…dad6backed Yes	6c	6,988$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.59	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb5…1dc6backed Yes	6c	6,884$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.03	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…78c9backed Yes	3c	5,786$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.69	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd64…7e15backed Yes	6c	5,543$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eec…ea07backed Yes	6c	5,254$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…879ebacked Yes	1c	5,124$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.25	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6b…6027backed Yes	11c	5,037$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.46	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes	1c	5,031$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.25	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b15…e717backed Yes	4c	4,777$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.86	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e2…84ddbacked Yes	2c	4,626$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes	7c	4,600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x681a…f823backed Yes	9c	4,444$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	19cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f0…7322backed Yes	10c	4,134$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	12cpaid	+379.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a45…b82abacked Yes	2c	4,089$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.31	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09db…c089backed Yes	2c	4,062$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.82	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes	6c	4,000$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	61	18%11 W · 50 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x873d…28fdbacked Yes	1c	3,938$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcb…9fb7backed Yes	3c	3,841$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	7c	3,837$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.43	160	29.4%47 W · 113 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…b3babacked Yes	7c	3,761$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x693e…c4b0backed Yes	6c	3,732$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.91	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb2…6f2abacked Yes	11c	3,722$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec9a…dad1backed Yes	7c	3,657$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2daa…a350backed Yes	9c	3,368$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.17	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	3,331$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.88	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b42…f193backed Yes	3c	3,300$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.6	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6e…6254backed Yes	5c	3,298$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddbb…4461backed Yes	3c	3,284$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa614…6fc8backed Yes	3c	3,269$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.76	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+185.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba6…79d3backed Yes	3c	3,232$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…38aebacked Yes	8c	2,921$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.59	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc826…c17ebacked Yes	3c	2,825$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.4	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Yes	6c	2,725$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2b…527abacked Yes	8c	2,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40ae…a59ebacked Yes	6c	2,500$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x989f…f18abacked Yes	9c	2,500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3da…1680backed Yes	3c	2,491$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc4…3716backed Yes	3c	2,491$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.37	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb937…9d0dbacked Yes	8c	2,393$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae5…7517backed Yes	4c	2,241$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc395…c64bbacked Yes	9c	2,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ff…f26dbacked Yes	9c	2,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+50.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	2,041$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.97	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes	8c	2,022$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.8	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	3c	2,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.74	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb035…433fbacked Yes	3c	1,967$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes	1c	1,888$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.66	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+855%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45e0…15cbbacked Yes	3c	1,879$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	27cpaid	+110.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?this page
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?Yes won
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?No won
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?No won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?No won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?No won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?No won
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event