Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth March 21-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae10d55a4024b812bc07650de0370a0c7fa214aa678dcaa4dff69380b38dee66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 14c | 851.52$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 11c | 357$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 351$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 317.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes | 12c | 280.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…879ebacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 201.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…403abacked Yes | 28c | 192.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…cd05backed Yes | 13c | 187.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 177.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 171.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b594backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 17c | 72.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post less than 80 times on Truth March 21-28?this page
- Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth March 21-28?Yes won
- Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth March 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth March 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 180 or more times on Truth March 21-28?No won
- Will Trump post 80-99 times on Truth March 21-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.