Music · resolved market
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd09fa0ecd82d2088ebdce6f777af1dd31ab97ad7a9bb2b229aec500bccf92064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 8c | 9,215$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,250$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 8c | 1,625$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…0f2fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,510$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7145…89e6backed Yes | 15c | 1,295$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…e89cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,123$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,120$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,070$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e239backed Yes | 7c | 946.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…b6cabacked Yes | 7c | 937.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…c247backed Yes | 8c | 829.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 9c | 750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 7c | 700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 675.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…3a53backed Yes | 8c | 628.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 13c | 612.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 8c | 600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…4679backed Yes | 9c | 565.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…e017backed Yes | 8c | 548$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…c390backed Yes | 8c | 540.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e0…19b9backed Yes | 8c | 504.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes | 6c | 473.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931e…df57backed Yes | 9c | 426.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4c…a1fcbacked Yes | 8c | 397.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 5c | 375.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 349$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…c507backed Yes | 14c | 348.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…a315backed Yes | 11c | 319.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 308.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…cfb2backed Yes | 8c | 285$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 14c | 281$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 8c | 261.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5b…aa7abacked Yes | 8c | 221$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…d521backed Yes | 6c | 216.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5029…46c6backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…c5ffbacked Yes | 6c | 205$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 8c | 203.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…852cbacked Yes | 8c | 188$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e05…8d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…6a24backed Yes | 11c | 183.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 9c | 164.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…f47abacked Yes | 8c | 154$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…da7abacked Yes | 9c | 135.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…5298backed Yes | 10c | 126.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 9c | 125.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 8c | 123.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 12c | 114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?this page
- Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Australia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Belgium finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Croatia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Cyprus finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Czechia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Ireland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Montenegro finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Serbia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Slovenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
- Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Switzerland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Yes won
- Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.