TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,392 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes11c3,049$321 inLost-$321.31338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7334…8ecbbacked Yes11c2,529$267 inLost-$267.340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes9c2,100$188 inLost-$187.57027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7603…5d69backed Yes22c2,001$443 inLost-$442.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes15c1,379$200 inLost-$2005335.8%19 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242b…de00backed Yes16c1,337$211 inLost-$211.381241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes10c1,250$130 inLost-$1304129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf42…91eabacked Yes13c922.43$120 inLost-$119.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes15c775$116 inLost-$115.53429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes19c772.33$146 inLost-$145.951618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6281…53afbacked Yes17c604.7$101 inLost-$101366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes11c425$48 inLost-$4815119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb64…4eb4backed Yes13c396.88$50 inLost-$501520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes13c340.5$44 inLost-$44.2712835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ece…b2e7backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost-$502729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No76c239.11$181 inWon+$58.447343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes9c238.28$21 inLost-$21.06310%0 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes12c208.33$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes13c207.76$27 inLost-$26.933330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac9…d84ebacked Yes12c201.14$24 inLost-$24.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5f…6cadbacked Yes18c197.62$35 inLost-$35.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x284a…30edbacked Yes13c191.69$25 inLost-$25825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No76c183.73$141 inWon+$43.183154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes8c160$12 inLost-$12.094461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes9c150$14 inLost-$13.53030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe73f…c247backed Yes14c130.95$18 inLost-$18.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes12c125$15 inLost-$152020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes10c114.78$12 inLost-$11.783923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd76…6c23backed Yes19c111.1$21 inLost-$20.691145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$143141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$129333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes21c91$19 inLost-$19.111346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No76c70.69$54 inWon+$16.9722927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c64$14 inLost-$14.0810517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89bf…2c05backed Yes18c55.96$10 inLost-$10.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.