TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No36c33,127$12,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,039.535145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes70c28,110$19,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,409.461154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a0…2265backed Yes61c28,078$17,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,950.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7c…ead5backed No39c28,078$10,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,950.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No22c13,065$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.981931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No20c11,889$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.221844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes61c7,071$4,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.638140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdadc…6295backed No23c7,055$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked No25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No27c5,042$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.272524%6 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No30c5,000$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.912035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes66c3,879$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.791241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No24c3,536$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.024643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes76c3,439$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.65335.8%19 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No26c3,412$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.3622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed No14c3,056$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.87650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+307.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes64c2,485$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.5414835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No22c2,083$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.6212835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No27c2,001$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.056642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d4…9c57backed No27c1,751$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.342835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No25c1,663$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.733429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No32c1,604$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.824731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No24c1,552$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.244748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cf…75d1backed Yes70c1,518$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes67c1,495$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.79911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No29c1,470$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.514240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No20c1,333$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.857343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes67c1,138$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.6919939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ba…408fbacked Yes65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e4…7793backed No24c970$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+48.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f5…b6e9backed No27c970$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes57c958.56$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.5210630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No24c902.77$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.443438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda33…3fe8backed Yes64c887.19$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3396…458dbacked Yes67c850$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…e483backed Yes57c800$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked No25c777.39$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.291827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed No19c761$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.153330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8f…b5d6backed Yes69c757.68$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No37c699.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.54946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Yes78c639.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No38c631.14$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.736533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b8…4d0bbacked No28c540$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2f…6c82backed Yes73c485$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+84.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No24c475$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.853348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No35c459.82$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.737345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7492…4cbbbacked No28c455$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…9424backed No29c455$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccc1…b2b3backed No36c447.22$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No35c447.01$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.429335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…b6e5backed No22c434.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dd2…2518backed Yes73c424.97$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes65c388.17$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1371266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x725b…576dbacked Yes78c384.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.71136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed No25c379.15$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.33740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No27c362.92$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.611662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No6c352$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.943030%9 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb38a…8237backed Yes73c340.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…5b14backed No19c325$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No36c323.26$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.52040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked Yes65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865c…ad2abacked Yes66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb533…70debacked Yes67c297.68$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes67c290$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.14344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed Yes69c289$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.271838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbbe…9945backed Yes72c285$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84e7…9acdbacked Yes73c270$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbc…9dafbacked Yes72c270$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No34c262.95$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.917740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…5b56backed Yes72c255$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbe…088dbacked Yes79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No18c249.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe98…0befbacked Yes67c238.81$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes63c233.4$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.123941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…5aacbacked Yes65c230.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No34c212.76$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.274440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6447…69b7backed Yes66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc814…dc7cbacked No34c197.09$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.01825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-60.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c191.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No24c185$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.215119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No31c171.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.555738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes75c166.18$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.144447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54b7…eb22backed Yes73c160$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851060%6 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked No24c160$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.68234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d9…9695backed No38c157$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.592035%7 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b13…850bbacked Yes66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd918…2538backed Yes66c150.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked Yes73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+107.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No24c149.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.57027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc15c…da7abacked Yes77c145.06$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fac…c572backed Yes67c141$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd76…6c23backed Yes68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.