Tennis · resolved market

Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0c9f4babea635c6118e2a0a9bf0ee55aa8c6fb66a1ef523b98f482fcd722b5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $283,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $143,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,144 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0826…0b32backed Yes	5c	70,000$3,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,500	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-73.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	4c	23,950$958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.53	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes	6c	20,500$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230	87	28.7%25 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Yes	1c	17,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	261	34.1%89 W · 172 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	6c	10,160$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608	158	32.9%52 W · 106 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Yes	5c	7,391$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Yes	5c	6,823$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.16	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Yes	5c	5,220$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.98	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes	6c	4,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd811…ecfdbacked Yes	6c	3,900$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes	3c	3,671$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.13	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0628…3512backed Yes	1c	3,233$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17eb…8db2backed Yes	6c	2,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	5c	2,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1,107	42.8%474 W · 633 L	-20.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	5c	1,700$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe538…c28bbacked Yes	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa9a…099fbacked Yes	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ba9…c25fbacked Yes	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes	6c	1,636$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.13	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Yes	6c	1,600$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed Yes	6c	1,417$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	174	39.7%69 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	5c	1,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe11b…f02dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d34…15a1backed Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2df…0cadbacked Yes	6c	666.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf034…54e7backed Yes	6c	658.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3a2…bcd1backed Yes	6c	633.33$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9249…d239backed Yes	6c	600.83$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.05	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-63%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…261fbacked Yes	6c	570$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	243	57.6%140 W · 103 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes	3c	513.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.42	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed47…9d90backed Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa318…0c71backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…63e0backed Yes	4c	302.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c2…7efabacked Yes	6c	272.17$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb099…3560backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Yes	6c	220$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-4.2wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	707	29.1%206 W · 501 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6665…d1efbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-94.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5284…e64fbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	6c	176.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event