Tennis · resolved market

Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d819d9d731db09185dcd4d60522c46485a205eea4dcf3443515e91c8e63ac4

Rebuilt 50 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $485,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $186,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,598 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xec59…bb35backed Yes	0c	39,973$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.94	246	43.9%108 W · 138 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Yes	1c	34,448$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.04	166	36.7%61 W · 105 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2e…05a6backed Yes	0c	26,609$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.27	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	25,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.34	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	0c	24,119$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.66	103	18.4%19 W · 84 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c60…b19cbacked Yes	1c	21,981$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.06	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	17,153$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.51	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	0c	14,555$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.33	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes	0c	10,120$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-95.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98b2…95fdbacked Yes	1c	9,890$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.3	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	0c	9,583$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes	1c	9,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Yes	1c	8,247$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.97	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	+6.5wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	2c	8,044$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.12	1,107	42.8%474 W · 633 L	-20.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes	0c	7,582$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.84	119	19.3%23 W · 96 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	1c	7,555$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	93	3.2%3 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Yes	2c	7,500$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.7	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed Yes	1c	7,061$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.5	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	6,078$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	1c	5,147$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ad…8722backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x928c…0f9ebacked Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	0c	4,921$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Yes	2c	4,773$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	123	35%43 W · 80 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes	0c	4,755$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	1c	4,305$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	82	26.8%22 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	2c	3,699$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.79	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	3,547$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	1c	3,379$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1933…b444backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	0c	3,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	527	50.3%265 W · 262 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Yes	1c	2,789$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.67	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,285$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b51…9144backed Yes	1c	2,222$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-87.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1463…ce78backed Yes	1c	1,748$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2163…8c89backed Yes	1c	1,703$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes	1c	1,357$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	133	30.1%40 W · 93 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes	3c	1,300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes	1c	1,241$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	312	20.5%64 W · 248 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed0d…bc18backed Yes	2c	1,111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes	3c	999.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32fe…eb6fbacked Yes	5c	610.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event