Tennis · resolved market

Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83a29b010b0c4d583dc9f7b6a852537ba18a53096536c96378d778ddc0ae1d5

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $398,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $171,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,700 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3123…b44dbacked Yes	0c	54,290$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.29	474	53.2%252 W · 222 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	0c	49,269$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.54	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	24,990$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	0c	23,114$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.47	103	18.4%19 W · 84 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68e2…30acbacked Yes	0c	14,495$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Yes	0c	10,756$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	957	42.1%403 W · 554 L	-24.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes	0c	9,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-87%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1463…ce78backed Yes	0c	8,453$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x56b2…2ce1backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9249…d239backed Yes	1c	1,916$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-63%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	1c	1,002$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event