TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,660,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,285,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,660,556 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes1c109,608$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.412920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6e…03efbacked Yes7c76,879$5,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,606.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c51,814$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.762913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes4c38,602$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.396627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb0…b3abbacked Yes14c36,976$5,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,154.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes2c36,221$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.842015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfb…e789backed Yes7c34,959$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7049…c20ebacked Yes9c33,682$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb969…e149backed Yes2c32,313$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ac…5d6fbacked Yes5c32,127$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes5c28,861$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.35567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes1c27,261$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.467238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c23,950$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.46291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…ee2ebacked Yes8c21,796$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8744…afe3backed Yes8c21,196$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc2…4562backed Yes8c19,874$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes1c17,019$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.191414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes2c16,503$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.942821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f4…5a75backed Yes7c16,195$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x726f…6406backed Yes8c15,734$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes2c14,034$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.933414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes6c13,938$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.9411836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cea…5f68backed Yes8c13,060$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Yes9c12,291$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9978…a49ebacked Yes2c12,156$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbc…bc7cbacked Yes7c11,937$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba69…4961backed Yes7c11,486$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…203fbacked Yes9c10,667$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5c…13c9backed Yes10c9,660$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de0…3fb1backed Yes6c9,023$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes4c8,537$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa590…b721backed Yes7c8,366$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b3…d153backed Yes6c8,059$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…31c6backed Yes7c7,562$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce35…a226backed Yes7c7,014$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb80b…6e83backed Yes2c6,925$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8912…379abacked Yes2c6,790$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb3a…1fb0backed Yes7c6,789$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c6…2c1cbacked Yes4c6,788$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9f…2661backed Yes9c6,362$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e0…67fdbacked Yes8c6,200$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e2…36b0backed Yes10c6,060$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb76e…ee41backed Yes9c5,863$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…2114backed Yes7c5,859$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac14…cb79backed Yes4c5,755$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes14c5,720$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3175…b93ebacked Yes6c5,664$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee91…91b0backed Yes9c5,558$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd4…84a9backed Yes6c5,377$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…4477backed Yes10c5,145$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes10c5,140$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60a…da21backed Yes3c5,026$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-47.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…5624backed Yes12c5,001$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95a8…1371backed Yes7c4,896$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0edd…1335backed Yes7c4,431$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0842…0f97backed Yes7c4,331$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes4c3,981$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.75922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-36.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e5…a3ffbacked Yes10c3,851$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed Yes5c3,704$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes2c3,674$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.31170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2867…ebefbacked Yes3c3,496$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,453$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.121,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f6…c516backed Yes8c3,402$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe764…ba9cbacked Yes8c3,263$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5679…a939backed Yes8c3,217$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes6c3,160$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.710933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe084…a0d6backed Yes7c3,159$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f7…41f3backed Yes7c3,056$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0991…2ca3backed Yes8c3,000$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes7c2,994$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0bf…c907backed Yes7c2,963$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba1…0468backed Yes7c2,847$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes5c2,760$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.415221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes6c2,729$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa47…6709backed Yes8c2,544$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2a…a11bbacked Yes8c2,437$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…205dbacked Yes6c2,312$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes6c2,195$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.02130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7717…fa4dbacked Yes8c2,167$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4509…5763backed Yes10c2,019$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0188…3e2bbacked Yes7c1,924$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes3c1,846$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.242917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08bd…8ba9backed Yes7c1,823$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355b…bd9bbacked Yes1c1,807$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4bb…20a9backed Yes7c1,789$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes10c1,776$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.964117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ff…7207backed Yes2c1,774$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a4…7ed0backed Yes9c1,770$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20bc…f61bbacked Yes9c1,712$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da8…e315backed Yes6c1,676$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes1c1,601$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.39728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes7c1,530$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x359d…d944backed Yes7c1,497$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea8…25d6backed Yes9c1,487$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3db…7d46backed Yes7c1,483$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa34…b425backed Yes8c1,465$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.