AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dd78dce2542e8299325f67f79887011d14e5cfa5af14f71d1817877fb781f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $794,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $451,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $794,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 118,151$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…218bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,297$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 0c | 30,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f87…d197backed Yes | 10c | 27,745$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…93fabacked Yes | 15c | 27,336$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,370$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0541…5ecfbacked Yes | 0c | 24,340$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 22,852$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 1c | 22,819$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 1c | 17,909$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…9c75backed Yes | 1c | 16,675$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…fe14backed Yes | 1c | 13,855$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,139$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,029$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 10,963$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,365$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…5715backed Yes | 1c | 8,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 1c | 8,019$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…f4d6backed Yes | 1c | 7,613$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…da49backed Yes | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…10a2backed Yes | 0c | 6,461$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 1c | 6,061$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…7207backed Yes | 1c | 5,453$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…4054backed Yes | 1c | 5,330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 1c | 4,984$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…e921backed Yes | 1c | 4,979$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc488…3f68backed Yes | 1c | 4,616$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked Yes | 0c | 4,547$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,491$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…9811backed Yes | 1c | 4,267$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…035cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,953$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a6…7e29backed Yes | 1c | 3,893$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4deabacked Yes | 0c | 3,110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a0…3f6dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…47c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,847$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…c2d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,745$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,732$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…f796backed Yes | 1c | 2,629$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 1c | 2,581$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,375$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed Yes | 1c | 2,081$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,041$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…36d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,014$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,917$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,553$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 1c | 1,549$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,487$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,226$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…42a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,051$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 1c | 1,021$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes | 4c | 888.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 3c | 886.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 2c | 864.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…73acbacked Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…0821backed Yes | 1c | 786.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd7…1e87backed Yes | 2c | 731.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…ab37backed Yes | 2c | 637.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f781backed Yes | 5c | 606.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…5f56backed Yes | 2c | 507.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 3c | 499.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked No | 79c | 159$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.