AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48b650ecdb42e884996a7973c648f26fc25c97f6c1fc44f2010eec84e3519b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $851,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $393,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $851,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 181,234$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 119,571$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.18 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 0c | 93,057$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed Yes | 1c | 51,292$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 1c | 33,962$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 0c | 28,331$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 19,624$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…573abacked Yes | 0c | 19,422$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…2510backed Yes | 1c | 19,218$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…ae69backed Yes | 0c | 18,366$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 2c | 18,295$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 1c | 12,091$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 0c | 11,840$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…ee41backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 0c | 8,447$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…8667backed Yes | 0c | 8,430$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,230$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…dbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,359$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…7207backed Yes | 1c | 5,216$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 4,343$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,463$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,584$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked Yes | 1c | 2,502$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25aa…8208backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…aaa7backed Yes | 0c | 2,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…dda7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,778$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…fe14backed Yes | 1c | 1,777$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,526$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…e846backed Yes | 1c | 1,523$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…915dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,390$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,254$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…5f56backed Yes | 3c | 452.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 427.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.