Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4f6154bfed3fcaf1a7a4fb2da06b56771370f433dd793b016bad3dfe323823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5922…3388backed No | 1c | 6,095$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…10f3backed No | 0c | 5,330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 3c | 2,331$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.4 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 35c | 548.9$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 27c | 519.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.69 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 63c | 441.57$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 441.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.89 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 404.32$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.05 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 67c | 350$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 71c | 318.53$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.01 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes | 42c | 302.61$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 68c | 300$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 73c | 299.98$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 8c | 294.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 238.65$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 76c | 229.75$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3923…7939backed Yes | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 38c | 185.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 71c | 165.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…61c1backed No | 63c | 157.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…7f0abacked Yes | 30c | 135.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 72c | 127.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 64c | 118$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed No | 69c | 113.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…ffb3backed Yes | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes | 35c | 106$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 73c | 104.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…12c3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 74c | 99.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…63e0backed Yes | 25c | 95.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 43c | 93.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 78.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed No | 69c | 73.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 65c | 66.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 64.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 64.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…1800backed No | 68c | 59.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 67c | 52.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…3b3cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…485cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…eff8backed No | 65c | 46.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed Yes | 40c | 44.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 35c | 40.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd363…e6d1backed No | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…c6b5backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e6…23e4backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…e499backed No | 66c | 27.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 26.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…73e1backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No | 80c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.