Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551c1b3d6eafb24321c7b21c2de2456a3a52a388b9802bbd8f9415c6015d702e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 43c | 2,036$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed No | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed No | 3c | 1,162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 47c | 777$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.19 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 35c | 749.63$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.98 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…8ac3backed No | 19c | 523.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 48c | 462.27$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…c7b4backed No | 61c | 436$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 4c | 406.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed No | 74c | 323.91$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 60c | 315$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 290.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.39 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 42c | 239.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 61c | 150.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 65c | 132.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 58c | 128.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked No | 66c | 102$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 90.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 88.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 60c | 75.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 71c | 72.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 57c | 72.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…e499backed Yes | 52c | 71.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44f6…23a7backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed No | 61c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 69c | 61.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 63c | 56.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…776bbacked Yes | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 53c | 51.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 55c | 51.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…63f7backed Yes | 49c | 40.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 54c | 36.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…eff8backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 44c | 31.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Yes | 40c | 31.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…f314backed Yes | 50c | 30.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…e92abacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 66c | 15.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.