Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1997d0f30f5f0dddc2cc8a9ec23d08a713778ef58a9427a30e251774fa5291c5

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,144 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x706c…7752backed Yes	1c	1,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	15c	599.99$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	76c	473.07$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.67	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	23c	300$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	14c	266.07$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.34	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No	72c	233.47$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	26c	205.77$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.02	95	18.9%18 W · 77 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f3…0230backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9171…a0c6backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	77c	199.99$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	6c	189.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	28c	144.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1882…6974backed Yes	14c	142.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No	76c	131.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.58	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.8wins	-0.24per pick	43cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked No	79c	99.99$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	59cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	11c	96.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x58d5…045cbacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf39…2a2cbacked Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7094…530abacked Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No	69c	74.04$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcd12…dde7backed Yes	30c	65.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6283…e5c0backed Yes	22c	55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed No	70c	53.57$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.07	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba74…e022backed No	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes	27c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x582d…c221backed No	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	353	41.9%148 W · 205 L	+24.9wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes	23c	47.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-3.7wins	-0.31per pick	39cpaid	-74%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No	75c	43.18$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec67…86b9backed No	79c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	59cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No	70c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+3.7wins	+0.34per pick	57cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6dc…d7d0backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No	77c	39.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.33	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No	77c	34.97$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed No	70c	28.47$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked No	75c	24$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No	68c	23$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.42	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+5.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No	76c	13.33$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.2	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+4.9wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event