Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3af960f7ce5bb8419fa53768e0fb3ebd5f1ebef90299816ea69de313b872ca

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb100…6461backed No	60c	1,803$1,085 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.1	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b39…54c1backed Yes	40c	692.99$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f30…12c3backed Yes	36c	484.27$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.01	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	61c	459.98$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.89	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes	35c	418.05$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No	58c	389$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.85	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	34c	370.54$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.66	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes	41c	370$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.99	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes	42c	358.84$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.62	89	36%32 W · 57 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	59c	334.88$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.99	77	61%47 W · 30 L	+7.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1dea…ee97backed Yes	36c	319.05$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes	55c	291.67$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked No	63c	280$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.47	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7847…2f0cbacked Yes	37c	272.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No	70c	266.49$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.13	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	38c	261.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6233…cefdbacked Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes	31c	249.36$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8308…ca4bbacked Yes	41c	239.99$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	68c	230$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.9	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	60c	226.26$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.24	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	63c	222$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.14	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes	40c	221.54$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.89	66	40.9%27 W · 39 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	36c	220$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No	59c	204.01$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.76	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No	54c	201.29$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.99	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac5…0983backed Yes	14c	196.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No	60c	196$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.92	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-6.8wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	37c	176.28$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.06	101	37.6%38 W · 63 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	11c	170.32$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	86	4.7%4 W · 82 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-87%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No	65c	155$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.25	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf673…be20backed Yes	9c	148.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes	72c	139.79$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No	77c	129.26$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.26	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	125.62$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed Yes	41c	121.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x132c…c285backed Yes	36c	110.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes	39c	106$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	60c	99.1$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.74	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked Yes	35c	96.69$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked No	57c	89.91$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.91	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd866…3794backed Yes	44c	81.82$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af4…f9e0backed Yes	25c	79.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No	74c	77.31$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe418…eaabbacked No	66c	75.76$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ca…f698backed Yes	36c	72$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	39c	70.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.71	142	39.4%56 W · 86 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	53c	70$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.06	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	59c	69.1$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	95	18.9%18 W · 77 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Yes	37c	68.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked No	62c	64.75$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b2…4486backed No	78c	56.64$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.64	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes	38c	52.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d65…0ddabacked No	66c	52.1$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.88	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes	39c	51.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-38%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No	60c	51.31$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.55	82	32.9%27 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a0…1beabacked Yes	42c	51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495a…55c9backed Yes	55c	50.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba74…e022backed Yes	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Yes	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbc…3b3cbacked Yes	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	44c	47.09$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a5…eff8backed No	65c	46.28$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…9936backed Yes	45c	45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed No	60c	44.28$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.76	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+66.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	50c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked No	58c	42.76$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.96	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	65c	42.04$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.6	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Yes	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	90	34.4%31 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb28…4d29backed No	70c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed Yes	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes	45c	39.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.8wins	-0.24per pick	43cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No	64c	39.99$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3923…7939backed Yes	40c	39.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a9…4ff6backed Yes	36c	39.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	63c	38.78$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	66	75.8%50 W · 16 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2559…2ef4backed Yes	42c	35.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No	59c	35.09$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.23	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.0wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe1a…73e1backed Yes	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60f…9ea3backed Yes	47c	27.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed No	76c	25.34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.08	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed No	55c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.3	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	62cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked No	64c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb959…b18fbacked Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No	68c	22.84$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.28	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed No	62c	20.82$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.93	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	59cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x190a…4ab4backed No	65c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d2…28adbacked No	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.25	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e4c…fbc2backed No	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.21per pick	55cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+3.7wins	+0.34per pick	57cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No	63c	19.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84df…3900backed No	63c	19.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event