Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef1a05315e15b48e84757c7e78c4b7e1e725ed204770b1d0a031bad99d8da8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 20c | 9,755$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 13c | 5,996$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.95 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 3,877$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.14 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked No | 28c | 2,548$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 2,527$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed No | 6c | 2,290$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 34c | 2,216$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.86 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…f16ebacked No | 1c | 2,091$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 31c | 2,059$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 26c | 2,000$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.46 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 31c | 1,766$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 13c | 1,716$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 20c | 1,642$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 80c | 1,627$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed No | 49c | 1,575$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 72c | 1,500$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 1,387$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.69 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 31c | 1,196$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.49 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed No | 22c | 1,187$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed Yes | 77c | 1,152$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 12c | 1,121$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 19c | 991.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 17c | 932.63$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0db…7d4abacked Yes | 80c | 890.63$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 78c | 710.37$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked No | 30c | 677.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbee…a34fbacked Yes | 74c | 657.34$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 628.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 80c | 584.04$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 8c | 545$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 69c | 505.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 22c | 403.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 25c | 403.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 61c | 393.74$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.74 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed Yes | 73c | 349.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cef…4017backed No | 32c | 346.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…407fbacked No | 43c | 341.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 340$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 77c | 336$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5064…bd21backed Yes | 71c | 335.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 28c | 333.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Yes | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…cefdbacked No | 23c | 326.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 21c | 310.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 46c | 310$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed Yes | 76c | 262.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…0e91backed No | 42c | 262.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 72c | 260.04$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…5488backed No | 51c | 255.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed Yes | 74c | 246.2$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 20c | 243.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 44c | 229.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 56c | 225.73$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 68c | 221.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…e499backed No | 43c | 219.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 70c | 218.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked No | 34c | 215.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked Yes | 76c | 213.84$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 194.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed No | 25c | 193.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 57c | 190.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 33c | 179.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 57c | 175.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 16c | 170.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 78c | 159.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 22c | 148.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 18c | 147.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Yes | 75c | 146.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed Yes | 71c | 144.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 38c | 144.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…4d2abacked Yes | 63c | 143.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed Yes | 78c | 141.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 73c | 136.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…b394backed No | 41c | 122.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed Yes | 56c | 119.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 17c | 118.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 54c | 113.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…3b3cbacked Yes | 56c | 104.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 54c | 104.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5b63backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 71c | 98.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…12dfbacked No | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 20c | 97.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd363…e6d1backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.