Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72af2ff914d63352c55e040cc6ebe821c9e714475bc1b41b7f1df082ddd7ee58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b2…4486backed No | 76c | 449.23$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 441.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 24c | 436.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed No | 70c | 429.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 29c | 418.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…3a22backed Yes | 31c | 321.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 66c | 301.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 32c | 292.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 77c | 274$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 63c | 271.19$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 44c | 249.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 71c | 210.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 75c | 185.54$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes | 28c | 162.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed Yes | 35c | 155.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c4…86e2backed Yes | 36c | 139.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 73c | 137.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 85.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 81.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 30c | 79.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 69c | 72.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes | 31c | 69.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 20c | 62.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…6c6cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…e022backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 35c | 49.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…0ddabacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…93b1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…3389backed No | 76c | 39.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 37.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 56c | 28.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…ea12backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…0082backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 73c | 23.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0aa…abdcbacked Yes | 47c | 21.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…fbc2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…39a8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked No | 76c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.