Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c363fd4e398676a492d174445d8b0f87f760274b29e324c18eab76ab68f515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 39c | 334.86$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 61c | 328.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 53c | 316.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 61c | 279.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…aa68backed No | 35c | 255.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 73c | 204.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 37c | 188.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 50c | 184.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…eaabbacked No | 66c | 150.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…3407backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed No | 36c | 146.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 132.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 65c | 122.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 64c | 112.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 44cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 71c | 109.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 36c | 108.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 21c | 78.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…64c8backed Yes | 64c | 77.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 63c | 75.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a0c6backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 72.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed No | 59c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 57c | 63.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 52c | 57.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…c323backed No | 37c | 56.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 45c | 55.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…b3f2backed No | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…4a0dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 70c | 44.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 38c | 42.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed No | 40c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 36c | 34.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 53c | 31.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…48a6backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 68c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…0082backed Yes | 67c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…9129backed Yes | 49c | 20.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…776bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…f18ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.