TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac45…20c5backed Yes75c1,363$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.763033.3%10 W · 20 L-6.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No24c861.71$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.442437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No25c822.96$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.427733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8a…fd8dbacked Yes62c754.83$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No28c688.59$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.618725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No41c676.51$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c3…bdf4backed No35c633.66$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.41333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No32c578.56$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.159518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes46c505.08$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.326640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No35c499.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.991560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes58c416.54$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.541233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed No15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7463…59b3backed Yes70c386.52$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+97.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes76c284.53$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes57c266.35$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.534156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x055e…f94fbacked No22c256.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb09f…545cbacked No56c253.89$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5150%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26b2…4486backed Yes71c238.32$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No43c234.95$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.031855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No42c222$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.247525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No44c213$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes56c213$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa03…2927backed No24c209.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No42c199.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.998224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed No27c183.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+49.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes59c180$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes59c168.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No24c159.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed No62c144.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.94366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked Yes60c140$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes72c139.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b28…aa68backed No28c133.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed No51c133.52$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d6c…3407backed Yes78c127.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.56757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes80c125.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.168100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No48c122.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.122128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5869…071dbacked Yes72c110$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed No29c107.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.74714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No30c107.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.175949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb56d…0d39backed Yes71c104.6$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef09…60a8backed Yes52c103.46$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb061…5b1cbacked Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c95.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0729416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xfe99…afaabacked Yes70c89.79$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked No61c82.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed No25c81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.052433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes48c78.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.634759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1065…5fd9backed No27c75.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4985…2a64backed No27c74.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes61c72.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…3ae6backed Yes58c69.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.443100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes72c68.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.443727%10 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe121…12adbacked Yes63c65.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd6…5ddabacked Yes55c63.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.421225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked No24c61.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes59c61.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.063663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No38c61.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.283438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a8…ec99backed Yes53c61.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No34c59.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0614239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes53c58.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.371330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c65…d60dbacked Yes73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No41c53.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.945318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes53c51.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…0a66backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e18…696fbacked Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked No37c48.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes73c46.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.58205%1 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-93.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6467…f408backed Yes51c46.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No33c43.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No33c42.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.093321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b6d…8727backed Yes73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No61c40.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63129%9 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47350.7%37 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6db…24e4backed Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe19f…6c6cbacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x495a…55c9backed No30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked No42c39.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…7cbebacked Yes50c39.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda65…bce0backed Yes63c39.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.96475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes78c38.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes53c38.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.013100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked No43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.341346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bad…aa78backed Yes72c37.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb7d…f0dbbacked Yes59c37.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59bd…06d2backed No40c35.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes72c34.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c32.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.214346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.