TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No74c74,469$54,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,996.125145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1f…842cbacked Yes28c53,803$15,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,738.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a56…3b4ebacked No72c53,803$38,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,738.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes26c42,645$11,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,589.588140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes46c36,846$16,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,961.441154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes65c31,422$20,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,972.013941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes35c14,000$4,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,103.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick19cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed No17c9,363$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-53.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes24c8,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,080911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cfb…6d49backed Yes27c7,000$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,114250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No70c6,987$4,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.182035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes29c6,900$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,919.3214835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No64c5,303$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,420.46642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes28c4,727$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.021241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes23c2,605$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.351910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No27c2,318$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.832832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No63c2,248$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.694643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No80c2,034$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.114938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No60c1,738$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.597343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed Yes35c1,725$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No66c1,721$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.184748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bda…edd3backed Yes42c1,455$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.771315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No65c1,423$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9257139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8f…d72ebacked Yes36c1,379$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.421338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x246a…19b8backed No68c1,379$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.622330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…d2a9backed Yes29c1,276$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+71.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No65c1,246$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8102020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No62c1,229$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.922030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No64c1,150$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7413438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes25c1,083$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.422927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Yes37c1,082$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+85.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes28c999.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.9919939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No60c832.49$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.511850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed No65c815$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.42540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No64c777$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.424240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd299…b090backed No61c720$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35e…7cc4backed No65c684.75$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f95…629fbacked Yes37c661.04$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x440b…d50cbacked No19c653.58$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes59c563.82$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.031266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes37c545.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.483420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ec…9c05backed Yes37c540.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…28eebacked Yes38c533.4$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No64c528.02$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.596943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked No64c507.08$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.392638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No74c500.67$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.82070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+93.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No72c500.39$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.884440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked No75c481.63$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3593836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes36c430.79$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes36c420.63$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.814447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes30c420$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.041717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…af26backed Yes39c420$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+48.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes26c391.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes27c373.22$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7cc…0187backed Yes24c366.08$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+111%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No63c350$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2191844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No63c323.9$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.061637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes31c323.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.15850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+52.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No63c320$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c4f…01eabacked Yes39c311.23$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8c…fae7backed Yes37c307.89$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.89560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+85%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No76c300.1$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.589335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+107.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d89…637ebacked No66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ba…408fbacked Yes34c299.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No66c299.99$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.994461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No78c299.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.984946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x060b…78f1backed Yes25c296$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes25c295.15$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.627626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbe…088dbacked No69c290.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x656a…f720backed Yes36c287.04$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x553a…d31ebacked No61c280$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c6…77f1backed Yes33c280$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+198.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…bc60backed Yes41c278.17$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.171526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5607…1d7abacked Yes36c275.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6b…13e4backed No51c273.37$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1617…d39fbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe147…959abacked Yes41c263.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa90c…82e8backed Yes37c260$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3359…c1debacked Yes39c260$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe209…536dbacked Yes39c260$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No77c250$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e17…2e74backed Yes52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes36c250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd76…6c23backed Yes31c239.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.391145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No63c227.71$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0612835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd134…bdf7backed Yes35c225.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.48450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes24c218.41$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.167027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fca…7e0abacked Yes39c207.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee65…24d9backed No66c203.03$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.031216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-54.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1e3…f4d7backed Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1322250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+130.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes25c199.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.997234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No74c178.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.062755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No32c174.38$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.463046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No66c167.42$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.665320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.