TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,222 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5177…93c9backed Yes2c1,000$24 inLost-$24230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes5c798.31$37 inLost-$37.353420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes3c794.01$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa017…a6d3backed Yes2c750$15 inLost-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1a…b51fbacked Yes2c697.79$13 inLost-$13.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…e149backed Yes2c665.79$13 inLost-$12.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fba…3720backed Yes2c521.24$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fe…d034backed Yes3c360.03$12 inLost-$11.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5b…66e6backed Yes3c356.25$10 inLost-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbc…96a6backed Yes9c292.67$25 inLost-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…9111backed Yes9c135.05$13 inLost-$12.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5e…8919backed Yes11c133.77$15 inLost-$15.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70e6…29b1backed Yes9c130.11$12 inLost-$11.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.