TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,865 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes4c15,941$701 inLost-$701.41248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed Yes4c6,039$219 inLost-$218.741513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bda…edd3backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost-$239.971315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost-$49.263420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed Yes5c915.6$46 inLost-$45.78230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c883$22 inLost-$21.614629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes7c545.27$36 inLost-$36.411910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-82%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes4c505.48$21 inLost-$20.7160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2427…3395backed Yes6c416.67$25 inLost-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb238…e8e9backed Yes6c399$26 inLost-$25.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb95d…d0febacked Yes3c353.45$11 inLost-$10.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c8e…8a65backed Yes11c317.73$35 inLost-$35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Yes4c300$13 inLost-$13.36728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+101.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8178…9111backed Yes7c222.48$15 inLost-$14.9633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb50…94bdbacked Yes9c119$10 inLost-$10.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x020f…b759backed Yes14c100.03$14 inLost-$13.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.